Official Best Offseason Ever Thread

[glen a richter]

As we're still basking in the absolute amazingness that was Wednesday night, it occurred to me that the draft is a week from today. I'm so used to there being nearly two months between the last Blues game and the draft that this one just snuck up on me.

When the boys were playing like complete crap I was thinking about the draft a lot, but when things started to turn around I kind of put that on the back burner. There are definitely some organizational needs that have to be addressed if they want to sustain future success. As much as I loved this one, I would be a million times happier seeing them win it all on home ice. I think the two main needs are drafting players who can increase the teams overall speed on ice--they still looked awfully slow a lot of the time, and depth on defense in particular LHD. As they stand right now, they have 4 picks in the draft and originally I didn't think they'd really expand on that but then Binnington went and played out of his damn mind rendering it necessary to free up some dough to pay him what's sure to be a really lucrative contract. I'm almost 100% positive that they're going to shop Allen for a pick just so they can use the money towards paying Jordan and then sign a dirt cheap backup out of free agency. End of the day, I think they'll end up with 5 picks and make it a defense heavy draft.

Of the UFA's and RFA's (not including Binnington), I want to and expect them to bring back most of them. I could do without Fabbri, I think his time in the Note has run out and Blais will more than step up to be his permanent replacement. But we're looking at a lot of guys who need to get paid: Maroon, Sundqvist, Barbashev, Edmundson and Blais (and obviously Binny) are the ones I most want them to bring back, Gunnarsson maybe but if he was replaced with Mikkola I'd be cool with that. I'm just trying to wrap my head around how the hell they're going to pay all these guys. You don't win the Cup and then take a pay cut. Especially Sunny and Barbashev proved how important they are to the overall success of the team by virtue of the ass whooping we got the two games they were suspended. Maybe someone would be willing to rework their contract to make it possible to retain everyone because splitting apart this team after what they've been through and what they accomplished would be a huge shame. They're going to have to move some salary to make it all work, which is where trading Allen comes in, and probably also attempting to move Steen's contract. At least Bouw agreed to a pay cut which helps a little, but at the time I don't think they were expecting to be in a situation where they'd be faced with paying a goalie 5 or 6 mil per which is probably what Binny will command at this point. After all, he has an unbreakable record now--most wins in a playoff season by a rookie goalie. Unless the NHL does something stupid and expands the playoffs to make it drag out to August, no one can do any better than tie him.

All in all, I try to move Allen and Steen, think twice about bringing back Gunnarsson and then figure out the money situation after that's all said and done. The less overall turnover there is, the happier I'll be. That's for sure.

[JCShutout]

I'd LOVE to keep the whole band together, but I just don't think its possible. I think you have to target the guys who are most important, get them first, then see what you have room for, while saving room for Schenn and Petro next year.

Allen might go for a pick, (someone might see a potential starter there) but Steen might be a tough guy to trade, and IIRC, he has a NTC.

I think you prioritize Binner, Sundqvist, Barbashev and Edmundson. I don't see Binner getting $6m for half a season, no matter how great, and he's my boy. Maybe around Allen money for a couple of years. If he's still great, he can earn that $6m. I'd love to see a growing bridge contract, (like, 2m, 3m then 4m) but I doubt it.

If you can get Sundqvist, Barbashev and Edmundson for around a combined $10m, then I think that can work. I'd like less, but after career years from the first two, they're going to get coin. Maybe $3, $3, $3.5? A little worried they become Berglund/Boat at those prices, but what can you do? I LOVE Maroon, but I just don't see how he fits unless he stays at or under $2m. I'll miss Boom Boom's game 2 heroics (and general solid play) but I can't see him taking a one year deal. He just played great, won a cup, scored a huge OT goal, and this is your last chance at a decent contract. He'll want multiple years at or exceeding his current contract, and someone might give it to him.

Blais and Sanford should come in around a mill. I don't see a problem getting them to fit. Same with Fabbri. His value is super low and has upside. I can't see him getting over a mill.

Potential problems like this are why I didn't initially like signing Bozak and Perron for $9m combined. (though I'm happy with everything as it turned out, and I've come around on Perron. Dude has hands and wants to be here)

I think, if he doesn't have a NTC, you might be able to move Bozak (as long as he doesn't fall off a cliff) after next year if you need space to resign the captain and Schenn. I think for sure, someone takes a flier on Allen next year if we can't move him this year. Much easier to stomach a one year risk than two.

[theohall]

Situation: Projected Cap is 83 million. Hasn't been announced exactly what the increase will be, but that's what's been reported as the expected increase for awhile now.
Current cap hit: 64.266M
Projected space: 18.733M


UFA
Thorburn
Maroon
Del Zotto
Gunnarson
Coreau

RFA
Barbashev
Fabbri
Sanford
Sundqvist
Blais
Binnington (2 years from UFA status)

Existing contracts with caveats
Bozak has 10-team no trade list
Perron has 5-team no trade list
Schwartz has 15-team no trade list

Full no trade clauses:
Tarasenko
Pietrangelo
Steen
Bouwmeester

Before I get started, one thing everyone has to realize about Allen. No one wants him. Trading him for a pick is going to mean sending a quality prospect and/or high end draft pick with him to get the other team to take on that salary. Think about what Armstrong gave up in picks to get rid of the Lehtera, Berglund, and Sobotka contracts. Yes, we got two outstanding high end players in return, at the cost of 3 1st round picks and a 2nd. If one counts Thompson, that's technically 4 first round picks. We'll see if Armstrong can pull that kind of magic again or if the Blues keep Allen around as a reasonable backup who was outstanding in the way he handled being demoted and supporting Binnington on his run. All that said, Allen could actually be a good fit as Andersen's backup in Toronto, but I don't see Armstrong getting the better of Dubas plus the Leafs are very limited in cap space with their RFA situation.

On to the rest of the roster:

Binnington is being represented by Mike Liut and one other guy. They are already on record as looking for 5M, maybe 4M with longer term. There is zero precedent for what Binnington did, not even the Matt Murray thing, because Murray didn't take over until the Pens were already in the playoffs. If I were Binnington, I'd bet on myself, look for a 2-year deal to get me to UFA status and really get paid. If that is what happens, it's going to be between 4.5-5M. Say that happens at the 4.5 number... Projected space becomes 14.233

Sundqvist is the next RFA likely to get paid a significantly larger number. I have no idea what that number would be, but would guess in the 3M range, so going with that. Projected space 11.233

Barbashev is going to get a raise, but I don't see him getting the kind of raise Sundqvist got, but slighty less. Say 2.5M. Projected space: 8.733

Edmundson: This is a tough one. He took less because of cap constraints, then did not have that good a season compared to the ones prior. I have no idea where that's going, but say 4M with term. If there is any NTC stuff, it will likely be limited like Armstrong did last season for the UFAs he signed. Say 4M 5 years with a limited NTC. Projected space 4.733

Fabbri: If any offer at all, it's going to be a low offer. He isn't abritation eligible, so I wouildn't be surprised at all if he looks at whatever the Blues offer, then looks for an offer sheet from another team. 2 and half years of injuries is hard to overcome.

Sanford and Blais should both easily fit in the remaining space even with Fabbri staying on a low offer, given the following:

Gunnarson: Sorry, but gone.
Maroon: Someone will pay him, I don't see it being the Blues with that limited space available.
Del Zotto: Gone.
Thorbugn: Gone.
Coreau: 2-way, but he winds up staying in AHL to keep AHL veteran presence Binnington provided half of last season for the Rampage, but disappeared halfway through last season forcing the Coreau trade. Goal is to have him back up Husso and hope Husso returns to his rookie AHL form.

And the Blues have a complete roster with room to add Mikkola, Reinke, LaLeggia, Kyrou, etc. or some prospect who wows in camp.

There will be some interesting things happening in San Antonio as well. Blues only have 3 defenseman under contract for the Rampage, but I'd expect Reinke and Butler to be re-signed. No idea what will happen with UFA Tyler Wotherspoon who has taken 3 straight 1 year deals, two from the Flames and last season with the Blues. Trenton Bourque is done with junior level play and should join the Rampage. No idea what's happening with Anton Andersson. Looks like Scott Perunovich will spend one more year at UMD. No idea on if David Noel gets to stay in juniors. He'd be an over-ager and teams only get to keep 4. Tyler Tucker will stay in juniors.

Forward wise: Jordan Nolan UFA, Connor Bleakley RFA, Nolan Stevens RFA. Soshnikov has already signed with a KHL team. Won't be surprised if the Blues move on from Bleakley, re-sign Stevens. No idea what happens with Jordan Nolan. Jordan Nolan wound up 4th in scoring for the Rampage and does provide an experienced NHL player for those up and coming AHLers. Toropchenko should join the Rampage and possibly Dominik Bokk. Toropchenko might have the opportunity for one more year in juniors Guelph keeps him as one of their 4 over-age players. Won't be surprised if Bokk spends another year playing in the Men's Swedish league as he won't turn 20 until Feb 2020 and is eligible for all of those junior tournament things. Would probably be better for his development, especially as a leader for the Germany U20 team, which he helped qualify for the upcoming World Jr Tournament. Mathias LaFerrier will stay in juniors. Hugh McGing is also likely spending his senior year at Western Michigan. Kostin needs to stay in the AHL until he pulls his head out of his butt.

Goalie prospect Joel Hofer has 2 more years of junior eligibility. Hope he gets to play on a good team for a full season as a starter, which hasn't happened, yet. He's good enough to already be traded to a better team as an 18 year old to try and improve that team's goaltending. Didn't really help much, as he remained a backup on what turned out to be an average Portland Winterhawks team.

If the Blues do move on from some of their current bottom 6 forwards, there would be opportunities for guys like Kaspick, MacEachern, and Nolan Stevens. But I only see this happening if the Blues choose to keep Maroon and need to save cap space by promoting players on ELCs.

I think that's enough for now.

[theohall]

One more thing: When it comes to the draft, I agree with what Brian Burke said yesterday. Draft best player available, period. While I've read a couple of things saying the Blues need to draft defenseman, but that ignores the Blues already having Mikkola, Perunovich, Reinke, Tucker, potentially Walman if he finds his game again - already being developed/in the system.

[WaukeeBlues]

A little bit of "looking back" for a moment...

Now that the Blues have won the cup, every single move that was made the last 2-3 years automatically becomes "worth it." Doesn't matter one crap how 'bad' of a contract Allen or Steen or any of them are on. WE WON THE CUP!!!! . By definition, it was a good move.

For ONCE we get to experience what the Blackhawks, Kings, etc have had to contend with: the euphoria but then also getting back to the business of hockey. Couldn't care less we don't have a first this year. WE WON!!!!

Anyway...

Binnington is so interesting. I think it really depends what HE wants as far as term goes. If it's really cheap AAV I could see Army signing him long term. If he wants "mo money now" it's going to be a 2-3 year deal. Jake Allen money wouldn't be inappropriate.

I think SOMEONE will want Allen (if nothing else as an experienced backup) if we retain some of his salary. I don't think we'll have to sweeten the pot with a pick or prospect. Allen isn't horrible, guys. He's just madly inconsistent as a starter when it's all him. He's shown he thrives when splitting time or in a backup role. That's desireable. IIRC in the CBA the Blues can retain up to half his salary. I wouldn't mind it if it meant getting that contract moved. I almost don't care what the return is.

Gunnarsson: I will never forget Game 2 for the rest of my life and he will forever be a hero in the Blues folklore for that game. But unfortunately with the cap crunch I don't see how we can keep him. He had a hell of playoff though. Best hockey I've ever seen him play.
Maroon: Only way I see him come back is if it's for like 1 million and maybe not even then. Depends how badly he wants to stay in St. Louis is what it comes down to. I wouldn't do more than 1 year either.

theohall: I think (/hope) your numbers on the RFA guys are a bit high. The crazy thing with Sundqvist and Barbie is that their negotiations will be mostly premised on how critical they were to the team in the playoffs, not what their stats are in the regular season. How do you quantify that into a contract? I think Army's best bet to keep the AAV down is to give each of them a little term. The risk is obviously if they can't duplicate what they did this year and now we're stuck.

If we sign Edmundson to a 5 year deal on 4m AAV I will break something. That's exorbitant IMHO.

You guys see the boys are in Vegas with the cup? haha, so weird they'll probably still be partying together by the time some of these moves start happening. Agents trying to talk to their clients "I'm DRUNK IN VEGAS WITH THE CUP WOOOOO" hahaha. So awesome.

[JCShutout]

I'm pretty much in agreement with your priorities and general numbers Theo. I did see today that Hagelin just got $11m over 4 years ($2.75m/y) I hope that could lower Eddy's number to a smaller raise.

[glen a richter]

It really is a shame that it's financially not feasible to keep the whole gang together, but it is what it is I suppose. I completely expect Allen to be traded soon, at or just before the draft, and that will leave the team with 5 picks instead of the 4 they currently have. It's not that I'm drowning in Jake hate, but even if Binnington turns into a one season wonder, the results speak for themselves and he's going to get paid. The money has to come from somewhere and it makes the most sense to move Allen and then bring in a cheap backup. If Husso or Fitzpatrick get some good numbers and show developmental progress next season, they can be a cheap backup to a veteran Binnington the year after.

Mikkola is coming soon, whether they bring him in and don't re-sign Gunnarsson or they bring him in as the 7 d-man and he replaces Bouw after next season, he's coming soon.

Blais, I think, is going to be a permanent fixture in the lineup now and I don't think they're going to bring back Fabbri. For the most part, I think they can keep the bulk of the team together if they move the right pieces (Allen) and don't bring back certain pieces (Gunnarsson, Fabbri). Without having to mess too much with the lines will give everyone another year to gel at the AHL. Depending on needs due to injury, Kyrou can be first man up, Austin Poganski if necessary, maybe Kostin if he wakes the hell up.

I'll say this: the Blues winning the Cup could be the best thing for guys like Kostin and Kyrou to push them to want to be a big part of this team moving forward. Success breeds success and if Kostin is still out there pulling his best Nail Yakupov then he never wanted to be in the NHL in the first place. I get how hard it is to repeat in this league, and especially in a cap league with parity I understand that it's asking a lot for the boys win it all again next season, but if we can get some sustained success and have the youngsters really have something to shoot for then this team has the personnel to be a force for the next decade.

And of course, if we can get a power play that's not a complete dumpster fire, this team has the personnel to win every Cup for the next decade....

[theohall]

The reason I put Edmundson at 4M, he's arbitration eligible. Thus is a pure guess but... Blues offer something in 3 to 3.5 range; Edmundson asks high, like Parayko money even though that's ridiculous; goes to arbitration and winds up somewhere in the middle. Of course, an accepted arbitration deal is 2 years max, unless both parties work something else out. Edmundson is going to want term and get paid. I don't think he should get 4M AAV for 5, but I can see Armstrong still doing that as long as there is no full NTC.

[theohall]

Read another red flag irt Kostin. He was supposed to be one of the Black Aces, but he opted out. No idea why, but that certainly doesn't show the dedication one would expect from a supposed top prospect.

[theohall]

There is room for an assistant coach on the Blues staff. I hope they find a power play / offensive minded coach to add to the group.

[JCShutout]

I'm surprised that so many people don't think we'll bring back Fabbri. There is no way he'll make much, and the upside is there. For a million or less, I'm willing to see what a 2nd year back from injury looks like.

[theohall]

Simple take on Fabbri... the Blues make him an offer, which won't be that much - something slightly above the minimum qualifying offer. Why I think he won't be back? He can try and get more via the offer sheet process from anyone. As long as the Blues have made a qualifying offer, the compensation is fixed based on whatever contract he could get elsewhere. If he can't find a better deal, then he's back. He's not even arbitration eligible so his only leverage would be trying to get a deal somewhere else. I'd be happy if he were back, because his best isn't what we saw from him this season and, if the Blues can add an offensive minded coach to the staff, he's the kind of player who would benefit immensely from that type of coach. No idea how it will really play out, but I'd bet on Blues making an offer and him looking for an offer sheet from someone else.

[JCShutout]

That makes sense, though I can't see another team giving him so much that the Blues wouldn't match it. You never know though.

[theohall]

That's where it gets into what happens with Gunnarson and Maroon. If the Blues do sign both, there isn't room for someone in that RFA group and even a small bump for Fabbri from someone else would likely prevent re-signing him. Now, if both Maroon and Gunnarson aren't back, yes, the Blues could probably match. Given the Blues history of being loyal to players, I could easily see both Gunnarson and Maroon returning. Being heartless, that's probably not the best thing to do, but the Blues have always been a "character" organization. Who goes from the RFA group then becomes the question.

[JCShutout]

Those "loyalty" moves are the moves that gets you into trouble. Love what Gunner gave us this year, but thank you and goodbye. I love having hometown Maroon, but not at more than $2m, and not at the expense of ANY of our RFAs this year or resigning Dunn, Schenn and Petro next year.You know what I like more than having a hometown guy? Winning.

Not resigning Backes was a difficult and very smart decision. Clearly the Steen resigning worked for this year, but isn't good long term unless he bounces back. I already think Sunny and Barbie will get more than they should, but I'd rather overpay them a little than Maroon because they offer more upside, and are younger and generally just more difficult to replace.

Maroon and Gunnarson are basically the same player. A really nice supplementary piece if the $$$ works out, but if you pay them too much so you can't keep your young talent, you'll regret it.

I've heard that Columbus might be a good destination for Allen, if so, you might be able to make everything work.

[glen a richter]

A team in permanent need of a goalie would be San Jose, if you'd be inclined to trade Allen within the conference which I wouldn't. That sort of thing could come around to bite us, especially if we're facing the Sharks in the playoffs again. Columbus and Ottawa come to mind as potential trade partners.

Agree on Gunnarsson and Maroon. Thanks for your service but the money probably won't work out. It would be nice to be able to squeeze MacEachern into the lineup on a regular basis, and/or Kyrou if two forward spots end up opening up. Mikkola for Gunnarsson and then just make sure you retain everyone else.

I'm only mildly curious what'd going to happen at the draft and not so much for who the Blues will take. I doubt they will, and don't see any reason to, move back into the 1st round. I'm more interested in whether they move Allen or not.

Not Blues related, the Winnipeg trade yesterday, boy did their defense take a step back. Pionk isn't half the defender that Trouba is and it's great to have him (Trouba) out of the central. When you take that trade as a whole, the Jets basically swapped Trouba for Pionk straight up because it was their draft pick in the first place which they traded to the Rangers for Kevin Hayes who's no longer with the Jets. Overall net loss for them while so far we've gotten neither better or worse so Army's already winning without having actually done anything.

[Kerfuffle]

This is always the tough part - you lose guys after you win. I naively thought my Hawks would keep the band together in 2010 but you find out quickly that EVERYONE wants to be paid. And with a Stanley cup in hand the player agents use that as leverage. Yes it's a nice problem to have. But overall you will find everyone wants top dollar. And with the Stanley Cup finals being center stage all other teams and their GMs were watching as well and will want your players. One thing I'm not sure of and maybe one of you guys can answer is will the Blues be able to spend up to the cap? I'm assuming and maybe incorrectly that Armstrong will not have the budget to go to the max on the spend - thoughts?

Allen - he's a good backup but may want to play as a #1 starter somewhere. My Hawks need a backup goalie but teams usually don't trade within the division so that won't happen. Tank being locked up for 4 more years is great for you guys.

[ComradeT]

Those "loyalty" moves are the moves that gets you into trouble. Love what Gunner gave us this year, but thank you and goodbye. I love having hometown Maroon, but not at more than $2m, and not at the expense of ANY of our RFAs this year or resigning Dunn, Schenn and Petro next year.You know what I like more than having a hometown guy? Winning.

Not resigning Backes was a difficult and very smart decision. Clearly the Steen resigning worked for this year, but isn't good long term unless he bounces back. I already think Sunny and Barbie will get more than they should, but I'd rather overpay them a little than Maroon because they offer more upside, and are younger and generally just more difficult to replace.

Maroon and Gunnarson are basically the same player. A really nice supplementary piece if the $$$ works out, but if you pay them too much so you can't keep your young talent, you'll regret it.

I've heard that Columbus might be a good destination for Allen, if so, you might be able to make everything work.

Buying out Steen is actually a net positive and creates immediate cap space (per Cap Friendly). At 35 and with a cup to his name, perhaps he'd be okay with hanging them up.

[WaukeeBlues]

Also to consider with some of these signings (Karlsson, holy sh**), GM's clearly haven't learned a d**n thing from years past and have all lost their collective minds again.

There's going to be millions shelled out on guys past their prime, for term, with a ton of signing bonus money that'll promptly be regretted in about 2 years time.

I swear GM's in this league will never learn. Or maybe since the tenure is so short they simply don't care. Either way. But if the early indications are any sign there's no franking way the Blues can offer the kind of money and term Maroon and Gunnarsson would command coming off a cup compared with a whacko GM throwing money around like it's going out of style.

This summer is going to be stupid.

Fabbri: What, exactly, does he add? I don't think he truly has upside anymore. The injuries devastated his development, I think permanently. Even at league minimum, I wouldn't have him in the lineup unless I was desperate. That might sound harsh and I feel bad for the guy, and I'm ecstatic for him he got a Cup. But no thanks. We're almost literally counting every dollar.

[glen a richter]

Fabbri: What, exactly, does he add? I don't think he truly has upside anymore. The injuries devastated his development, I think permanently. Even at league minimum, I wouldn't have him in the lineup unless I was desperate. That might sound harsh and I feel bad for the guy, and I'm ecstatic for him he got a Cup. But no thanks. We're almost literally counting every dollar.

Fabbri adds the perpetual fear of yet another injury. He's always got a broken this or a torn that lurking around the corner and it's just not worth the risk no matter how low his contract is. Maybe he can latch on and succeed somewhere else and he's plenty young still, but hey man you got your name on the Cup so congratulations for that. Maybe you could think about getting into coaching.