Official Best Offseason Ever Thread

[theohall]

Non-Blues related... Looks like Chuck Fletcher is going to pull the same crap he pulled in Minnesota. Cleared some cap space, brought in older slower defenseman, is rumored to be trying to deal one of his 2 best young defenseman in Gostisbehere, and now has enough space to make a big free agent splash paying someone an exorbitant amount for 5 years, instead of the 8 Suter and Parise got. Older and slower does fit the mold for the coaching staff he hired, since none of them have any kind of good reputation when it comes to working with younger players at the NHL level.

[glen a richter]

Non-Blues related... Looks like Chuck Fletcher is going to pull the same crap he pulled in Minnesota. Cleared some cap space, brought in older slower defenseman, is rumored to be trying to deal one of his 2 best young defenseman in Gostisbehere, and now has enough space to make a big free agent splash paying someone an exorbitant amount for 5 years, instead of the 8 Suter and Parise got. Older and slower does fit the mold for the coaching staff he hired, since none of them have any kind of good reputation when it comes to working with younger players at the NHL level.

Speaking of the Flyers, I wonder how Mike Yeo is doing these days....

[JCShutout]

Those "loyalty" moves are the moves that gets you into trouble. Love what Gunner gave us this year, but thank you and goodbye. I love having hometown Maroon, but not at more than $2m, and not at the expense of ANY of our RFAs this year or resigning Dunn, Schenn and Petro next year.You know what I like more than having a hometown guy? Winning.

Not resigning Backes was a difficult and very smart decision. Clearly the Steen resigning worked for this year, but isn't good long term unless he bounces back. I already think Sunny and Barbie will get more than they should, but I'd rather overpay them a little than Maroon because they offer more upside, and are younger and generally just more difficult to replace.

Maroon and Gunnarson are basically the same player. A really nice supplementary piece if the $$$ works out, but if you pay them too much so you can't keep your young talent, you'll regret it.

I've heard that Columbus might be a good destination for Allen, if so, you might be able to make everything work.

Buying out Steen is actually a net positive and creates immediate cap space (per Cap Friendly). At 35 and with a cup to his name, perhaps he'd be okay with hanging them up.

If I'm doing my math correctly, a buyout would cost a cap hit of just under $2m for 4 years. (2/3 of his salary spread over double the remaining time on the contract-if I'm reading Capfriendly's explanation correctly) That would save the Blues about $3.8m each for the next 2 years, (minus the cost of a replacement player) and cost them$1.9+m (plus the cost of a replacement player) for 2 more years. Its a net positive, but not a major one.

I mean, if it allows you to keep all the RFA this year and Maroon; and Dunn, Schenn and Petro next year, then cool, but man that's playing with fire. I'd MUCH rather find a way to make it all fit this year, and buy him out potentially next year, so the damages are only a couple of years instead of 4.

[theohall]

And there it is... Chuck Fletcher paying Kevin Hayes almost 2M more per year than Oshie and Mikael Granlund - both comparable players... That man will never learn, or so it seems, and is the kind of GM that winds up causing lockouts.

[WaukeeBlues]

And there it is... Chuck Fletcher paying Kevin Hayes almost 2M more per year than Oshie and Mikael Granlund - both comparable players... That man will never learn, or so it seems, and is the kind of GM that winds up causing lockouts.

It's not just him: everyone is losing their d*mn minds.

All three of the big pending UFA deals: Karlsson, Hayes and Skinner, the current GM's DRASTICALLY overpaid to keep them there.

(1) If you're going to keep a pending UFA from testing the market you apparently have to seriously overpay to the point the player really doesn't think he'd get the same money and term if he tried UFA.

(2) GM's don't give a $hit any more because their tenure's are now so short that they say "hey, f*ck it, I'm likely not going to be around in 3 years anyway so why do I give a $hit?"

July 1 is going to be STUPID. GM's haven't learned a dang thing from years of bad deals. We're going to have a serious problem here sooner rather than later because every contract is 6-8 years for millions more than teams can pay. There will be a veritable choke-hold of teams totally unable to pay guys because of these stupid albatross contracts.

[JCShutout]

Which is why its so important for the Blues to be smart going forward. Everyone else being stupid gives you a chance to better maximize your roster. I'll say this, those signings make the Perron signing look like gold, and even the Bozak signing look fine. Sheesh.

I played around with capfriendly, and it looks like if you can get Binner for around $5.2m, Maroon for 2.3m, Barbie for $2.5m, Sunny for $3m and Eddy for $3.8m, and slight raises for the rest of the RFAs, everyone should fit this year, even if we can't move Allen and don't buyout Steen.

I'd rather do that, flip Allen if possible next year (if we can't this year, do it if you can), and buyout Steen next year to help afford raises for Petro, Schenn and Dunn. (Then we would only have a cap hit of just under $2m for 2 years on Steener's deal instead of 4) One would think the $3.8m savings from the buyout, losing Jaybo's salary, and trading away Allen would allow for our guys to be resigned next year and raises for the kids. The year after that, Bozak is gone (and potentially the buyout penalty if they do it next year instead of this year) just in time for Thomas to get a pay bump, assuming he continues to develop. After that, Perron's salary ends.

Its doable to keep the important pieces together for a nice 2-4 year window if we don't get stupid-sentimental.

So basically I'd choose Steen over Gunnar for this year, given the many young dmen who could play the 6/7 role. (or inexpensive signing)

[theohall]

When I finished with that long post, there was still ~4M in space left, assuming Fabbri doesn't take whatever the Blues offer, which will likely be the minimum salary for a qualifying offer. So Maroon could fit assuming he doesn't get stupid money and stupid term, which is what I think he's going to get offered from someone. IMO, it will be a matter of does Maroon want to stick around St Louis and do so for less. And there would still be some room for finagling during the season with the roster which didn't really exist when the season opened last year.

With the type of money GMs are throwing at players to keep them, I can see another lockout happening with the owners pulling the "it costs too much to sign guys" line again, even though it's their GMs, mostly, causing the issue, IMO.

[glen a richter]

If there's an extended lockout which begins, say, right now, then the Blues will be defending Cup champions for much longer than one season.

[tjk002]

I think Columbus is a perfect destination for Allen. I'd be willing to sign and trade a Sanford/Allen package to them for a late round draft pick, that should get it done if we eat some cash.

Give Binnington Allen's contract, net zero to the cap.

Barbie and Sunny will each come in around $2.5 to 3M. There goes $3M of cap space.

Edmondson should get about the same, maybe slightly more.

Maroon comes back for a 2 yr deal worth about $2m per year.

I think we have to remember that we just have to get thru one year. My guess is one of the higher priced guys will be claimed next year in the expansion draft (Bozak/Perron) type of deal.

[theohall]

The issue with Edmundson is 3rd pairing defenseman are getting paid in the 4-5M range, unless they are older veterans signed for a specific role, like Bortuzzo. Edmundson has been a 1st, 2nd and 3rd pairing guy. I agree somewhere around 3.5 is what he should get paid, but market plus Cup plus taking less just to play last season = something in the 4-5M range.

As to Allen, it looks like Carolina won't be getting Mrazek or McIlhenney back, so there could be an opportunity to move him there.

FYI, the Seattle expansion draft isn't until 2021.

[glen a richter]

Kyrou had knee surgery, should be ready in time for camp.

[flyingnote38]

Not really sure how the offseason will play out. Its a lot easier to project what restricted free agents are likely to get in MLB. No clue on what any of the Blues' signees are likely to get.

Cant see anybody getting bought out (Allen? how bad would that hurt?)
Are they talking about bringing Boouw back? There's some savings there otherwise. Got a bevy of 4th line types to pick and choose from with a few extras in the minors.

How the heck did Vegas get into suck a bad cap situation so fast?

Still shocked and ecstatic that we won.

[JCShutout]

ROR wins Selke and was a distant 2nd in the Lady Byng.
Binner comes in a moderately distant 2nd in the Calder.
Berube and Armstrong don't win their awards. (I haven't found specific voting results)

Good for ROR! Not shocked that Binner was 2nd. Pettersson had a hell of a year.

[StL Dan]

ROR wins Selke and was a distant 2nd in the Lady Byng.
Binner comes in a moderately distant 2nd in the Calder.
Berube and Armstrong don't win their awards. (I haven't found specific voting results)

Good for ROR! Not shocked that Binner was 2nd. Pettersson had a hell of a year.

I saw the Jack Adams voting results on Twitter last night but can't locate this morning. I think it finished with Cooper in 2nd and Berube in 3rd...and a distant 3rd, at that, somewhat surprisingly.

Calder
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D9dsAHGW4AMlShH.png

Selke
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D9d7_J7XUAAnKLv.png

Byng
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D9dwlJLX4AAzsZv.png:large

[glen a richter]

Binnington and Berube probably and predictably suffered in the voting because neither had a full season. I'd argue that's the reason they both should have gotten the awards running away. Without the benefit of time to sync up, a full camp together and a full season together, they were able to sync up nevertheless.

Binnington should have also been up for Hart, and damn right he should have won that one too. Not one player in the league was more responsible for their teams success than Binnington. Without his steady play instilling confidence in the rest of the guys to just go out there and play the game properly we'd be lamenting Buffalo getting a sweet first rounder courtesy of Army instead of celebrating a Cup championship. What did Kucherov do that was so special? Tampa Bay would have won the President's Trophy with or without him. Just because he put up an ungodly amount of points doesn't mean he was the only instrumental member contributing to their regular season success. That team is so loaded you could take anyone out of their lineup and they'd still be just fine.

[WaukeeBlues]

Binnington and Berube probably and predictably suffered in the voting because neither had a full season. I'd argue that's the reason they both should have gotten the awards running away. Without the benefit of time to sync up, a full camp together and a full season together, they were able to sync up nevertheless.

Binnington should have also been up for Hart, and damn right he should have won that one too. Not one player in the league was more responsible for their teams success than Binnington. Without his steady play instilling confidence in the rest of the guys to just go out there and play the game properly we'd be lamenting Buffalo getting a sweet first rounder courtesy of Army instead of celebrating a Cup championship. What did Kucherov do that was so special? Tampa Bay would have won the President's Trophy with or without him. Just because he put up an ungodly amount of points doesn't mean he was the only instrumental member contributing to their regular season success. That team is so loaded you could take anyone out of their lineup and they'd still be just fine.

The NHL needs to suck it up and just change the verbiage of the award. Get rid of the MVP "to his team" crap and just call it the most valuable player in the league. That's essentially what it is anyway.

[theohall]

McDavid didn't win the Calder, either. Same reason as Binnington... Not even half a season.

Islanders weren't supposed to be a playoff team. Blues were. Trotz deserved that award.

[JCShutout]

I'm biased and wanted our guys to win, but it doesn't matter. We won the important trophy. Berube and Binner will still get paid.

I'll bet this simmers in Binner as motivation.

[StL Dan]

I agree with richter - what Berube was able to accomplish in roughly half a season is the exactly the reason he should have won the Jack Adams.

[theohall]

All the restricted guys are going to get their qualifying offers and we’ll deal with it mid-July.

Armstrong was seen talking to Kyle Dubas, Leafs GM, as the draft started, and a couple of other GMs as the draft progressed. But the only quote he gave is the one above, which seems to indicate he isn't moving any of the RFAs unless someone makes an offer too good to be true.

Salary cap isn't going to 83-83.5M like most expected but will be in the 81.5 to 82M range. So the thing I wrote earlier that had 4M of space at the end, is down to 2.5M max. Which means, at a minimum, Gunnarson or Maroon is gone, since Armstrong is on record as making qualifying offers to all the RFAs. Those qualifying offers have minimums. You can't offer someone less than they are already making.

The qualifying offer is calculated from the players base salary (NHL salary minus signing bonus), and at minimum must meet the seasons minimum salary requirements:
110% of the base salary if the base salary is less than or equal to $660,000
105% of the base salary if the base salary is greater than $660,000 or less than $1,000,000. However, this qualifying offer cannot exceed $1,000,000.
100% of the base salary if the base salary is equal to or greater than $1,000,000.
CBA Reference 10.2 (a) (ii)

Since Armstrong is making qualifying offers to all of them (if they don't include bonuses and are only minimum offers:
Combined it's 5.219875M in cap space not including any bonuses which would put the Blues at 69.499469M before signing any UFAs . However, Edmundson, Sundqvist, and Sanford are arbitration eligible and will absolutely go to arbitration if offered the minimum. Fabbri, Blais, and Barbashev, not being arbitration eligible have two options - accept whatever the Blues offer or look for offer sheets. If the Blues pull the minimum offer route for those three, I would expect all three to look for offer sheets being Stanley Cup champions, especially since two of them played a significant role in that championship even if it wasn't necessarily scoring. Whatever happens with the Blues UFAs is going to determine what those RFAs get, at least from the Blues, with Armstrong on record saying he won't deal with the RFAs until mid-July. We'll know what the Blues are thinking in 10 days based on what happens with Maroon and Gunnarson, being the only two significant UFAs.

These are the "minimum offers" required for the Blues NHL level RFAs:
Barbashev .874125M
Fabbri .874125M
Sanford .821625M
Sundqvist .735000M
Blais .715000M
Edmundson 1.200000M

The only player on that list I see even considering accepting a minimum qualifying offer is Fabbri.

One aside: The uncertainty about the cap isn't on the NHL. It's more on the players trying to eliminate the escrow thing - which is actually a fair point for the players. Bettman is busy saying how well the league is doing, yet is taking 11+% from players salaries to cover the costs of the franchises that aren't doing well. If the NHL is doing so well, why are players paying for supposed failures?? That's the primary hangup as to why the cap hasn't been determined, yet. Every time the cap goes up, the player's escrow percentage (as in the amount taken from them to "help" the league) increases a percentage relative to the percentage increase of the cap. That's likely going away in the next CBA.