offseason so far

[theohall]

Now we have this: https://twitter.com/jprutherford/status/766299362825687040 So who the hell knows?

That doesn't say when this season.

[gaijin]

Now we have this: https://twitter.com/jprutherford/status/766299362825687040 So who the hell knows?

That doesn't say when this season.

When Avangard's season is over.

Oh, the drama.

[glen a richter]

The hell with Sobotka. Bring in Musil and trade Boat's rights to any team on the downward trend for a draft pick.

[beat2life]

4) Who is the next Captain?

According to my friend who was at Pietrangelo's wedding; Pietrangelo.

[WaukeeBlues]

Now we have this: https://twitter.com/jprutherford/status/766299362825687040 So who the hell knows?

That doesn't say when this season.

My biggest take away from that tweet: "Oh, Petr Svoboda is Sobotka's agent? Neat."

[gaijin]

A season preview from SB Nation talking to (one of) the guys at StL Game Time:

http://www.silversevensens.com/2016/8/2 ... -game-time

Yesterday we covered and up-and-coming Stanley Cup contender in the Nashville Predators. Today, we look at a team that feels like they should be nearing the end of their contention window in the St. Louis Blues. Here to share some optimism is Brad Lee of St. Louis Game Time.

1. The Blues lost long-time captain David Backes to free agency, as well as playoff standout Troy Brouwer. How much will those two be missed? Will any offseason acquisitions help to make up for them?

David Backes was a Blues draft pick and 10-year NHL veteran. He had a huge impact on the team as captain and strong two-way forward, Troy Brouwer was in St. Louis one single season, arriving in exchange for T.J. Oshie. Yet the impact of both of them leaving is the same: size and experience. They both performed well during the playoffs. They both have size and know how to use it. They go to the net and play in traffic. They're booth good at corralling rebounds and deflecting shots. If you look at the roster for the Blues as it's built right now, they don't have a lot of size to play in front of the net. And when I say a lot, I say almost none.

Sure Patrik Berglund could suddenly learn to do that. And youngster Dimitrij Jaskin could try to play that way, but they haven't yet and it would be foolish to assume so. That's why Ken Hitchcock is already talking to reporters about how he has to rethink how the team plays with the puck and how he's picked the brain of new assistant coach/head coach to be Mike Yeo about how his Minnesota Wild played effectively with a smaller lineup.

Let's sum up. Two of the team's best playoff performers and the two key big body forwards are gone so the veteran coach in his mid-60s in his self-proclaimed final year in coaching has to go back to the drawing board to play a different way because of how the team has been built. Sounds like a winning formula to me.

When you ask about off-season acquisitions, I guess you mean David Perron, here for his second tour of duty. He could go to the net. He will score some goals Backes and Brouwer scored, but not all of them.

It all just adds to lots of questions about what their style will be this coming season. Questions like, what the hell is going on with Kevin Shattenkirk.

2. Are you surprised that Kevin Shattenkirk is still with the team? Do you think he will be traded, or will the Blues make one last Cup push with him solidifying their D corps?

The next four seasons, the salary cap number for Alex Pietrangelo is $6.5 million. For the next three seasons, the salary cap number for Jay Bouwmeester is $5.4 million The salary cap number for Shattenkirk this season will be $4.5 million. Here's the sales pitch for Shattenkirk and his agent when he becomes an unrestricted free agent: No. 22 is an offensively gifted right-handed defenseman (a scarcity in today's NHL). He can fix your power play overnight (the efficiency of the Blues' power play when he's healthy vs. when he's out is shocking). He can play a decent amount of minutes. And if you keep him on the right side, he can be responsible in his own end. And then his agent is going to ask for at least $6.5 million a year. Maybe $7 million. That's why the Blues dangled him at the draft with the hope of either nabbing a guy like Taylor Hall (even though the Blues are set on the LW and are desperate at RW) or a top 15 draft pick. But those salary demands combined with the idea that he wants to sign with an East Coast team resulted in zero trades.

Last trade deadline, the Blues could not trade Brouwer or Backes for picks or prospects with a straight face. GM Doug Armstrong has continued to say that he's trying to win the Cup every year, but while also protecting the future. I've said that means he's trying both strategies (win now, win later) and not committing 100 percent to either. If he keeps Shattenkirk for the season and lets him walk for nothing next summer, that would be a waste of an opportunity to make the team better. Shattenkirk is a different commodity. There's a demand for him. He's younger at 27. And there's little chance he will stay in St. Louis. The Blues are committed to giving Pietrangelo and Bouwmeester top-pairing minutes. It just doesn't make sense to keep him all season.

But what they can get for him? No clue. Hopefully a big forward who can score close to 30 goals. Sounds easy!

3. Brian Elliott never seemed trusted by the Blues, despite putting up great numbers his entire time with St. Louis. Do you think the Blues are ready to anoint Jake Allen their undisputed starter, or will they be quietly looking for someone else in case Allen stumbles early?

At every opportunity, the St. Louis Blues have chosen not Brian Elliott. To me, it's organizational memory. When he signed with the Blues in summer of 2011, he signed for the league minimum and on a two-way contract. Any of the 29 other teams if they had wanted him could have signed him for a pittance more. And none did. You don't sign a potential starting goaltender to a two-way contract. That's backup city. So when he played well paired with Jaroslav Halak and won a playoff series against San Jose when Halak was injured, it was a shocking turn of events. In 38 games, he stopped 94 percent of the shots he faced and had a goals-against average of 1.56. He was the starting goaltender again the next season and saw the Blues lose in the first round. Then shit got weird. The next season the Blues traded for Ryan Miller. GM Doug Armstrong was quoted as saying the deal was worth it if it improved the team's goaltending by 5 percent. Take the Blues, increase the goaltending by 5 percent and it equaled a second straight first-round loss. Two seasons ago, they chose Jake Allen to start in the playoffs. Last season Elliott started the season as the starter. By Halloween, he was on the bench for a week at a time. An injury late in the season to Allen ensured Elliott was the starter. And even during a fantastic run, Allen came in and relieved Elliott in the San Jose series.

Jake Allen was drafted to be the starting goaltender for the Blues. Elliott was signed to be a backup. And two all-star selections. the best save percentage and most shutouts in team history didn't change that. So I can totally understand if Elliott wasn't guaranteed the starting job this coming season how he would want a trade.

Allen has no safety net. There will be a youngster in the backup role. They've put all their eggs in his basket. If he breaks some eggs, there will be no easy fixes. Here's one thing to remember. At every level Allen has been a top goaltender. He was the starter for Canada at the World Juniors, but he bombed out in the championship game. He was an AHL all-star goaltender, but bombed out in the playoffs. He's been named to the NHL All Rookie Team TWICE (seriously, you can look it up), but he bombed out his first playoffs he was the starter. Some would say he has struggled in high-pressure situations. Others might say he was put into high-pressure situations before he was ready. Regardless, he better be ready in October.

If he falters, the Blues have young goalies probably not ready for prime time in Jordan Binnington and Pheonix (yes, that's how it's spelled) Copley and a 21-year-old coming to North America for the first time this season in Ville Husso. If the salary cap wasn't an issue, maybe they'd bring Ben Bishop back for one season. Otherwise, they may have to ride Allen. And until just now I forgot the Blues acquired Carter Hutton to be the backup and the goalie made available in next summer's expansion draft. Sorry, Mr. Hutton.

To sum up, Allen could be good. Or not. And then the Blues will have to come up with a Plan B because I don't think they have one. The end.

Hard to argue with much there, although I wouldn't say we are desperate at RW. There's still this Tarasenko guy. But yes, after that our RW looks... ah, anemic with Perron and Berglund as our next best options.

In short, big tough offense (and leadership) left and was not replaced, Shatty (the first guy we all thought would be traded and our biggest bargaining chip) is still here, and the weight of an entire season's worth of goaltending is placed on the shoulders of Jake Allen.

[ecbm]

If you look at the roster for the Blues as it's built right now, they don't have a lot of size to play in front of the net. And when I say a lot, I say almost none.

Let's sum up. Two of the team's best playoff performers and the two key big body forwards are gone so the veteran coach in his mid-60s in his self-proclaimed final year in coaching has to go back to the drawing board to play a different way because of how the team has been built. Sounds like a winning formula to me.

Hey, is there an echo in here? Pretty much exactly this. In years past, the H&A bromance has pursued a style of hockey that I don't think will work today. This term, the moves seem completely reactive and don't really make sense at all.

Homeboy could be a bit more informed about the Blues if he's going to write such a piece though...

I guess you mean David Perron, here for his second tour of duty. He could go to the net. He will score some goals Backes and Brouwer scored, but not all of them.

Perron and a full season of Schwartz should easily replace B&B's regular season production of 39 goals and 84 points. What any of these players do in the playoffs is anyone's guess. It's a wash in terms of offensive production from the forwards. And while he correctly identifies the real deficiency-that is, physicality-he goes on to say:

Sure Patrik Berglund could suddenly learn to do that. And youngster Dimitrij Jaskin could try to play that way, but they haven't yet and it would be foolish to assume so.

Patrik Berglund is 28 and has played in 555 NHL games. While I don't totally subscribe to "can't teach an old dog new tricks", I'll eat my hat if Berglund (1.12 hits/ame at 16 minutes/gme in his career) suddenly becomes a physical player. While Jaskin already averages 2.26 hits per game in only 12 minutes a night.

For the next three seasons, the salary cap number for Jay Bouwmeester is $5.4 million

Still don't totally get the angst over specific-sided forwards in the squad right now considering how cavalierly Fabbri was moved off of center. Couldn't he go to either side? He played his entire career at center until joining the Blues.

[WaukeeBlues]

Two big things for me:

(1) The contention window for this team is not closing. Not sure where that language is coming from. Tarasenko, Schwartz and Pietrangelo are all in their prime. They're also indisputably our best 3 players. Allen has a little more grooming to do but he's arriving quickly. Shatty is in his prime but we can't afford him. If anything I think it's maybe a "changing of the guard" from the older guys like Backes, Brouwer, and shortly Stastny (unless he comes back cheaper) and maybe even Steen.

The only "problem" is the lack of blue chip prospects at forward in the pipeline. That's the biggest problem. Trading Shatty/one of our defensive prospects for help up front will help but looking at our crop of youngsters (not counting Fabbri) what names are looking strongly to be consistent 1st/2nd line players? Any? Yea a lot can happen but we are loaded at defense and losing ground at forward. Armstrong needs to balance that out.

(2) The coaching situation is terrible. On NHL network radio they were talking about it in the Blues preview. It's not a formula for success for the players to know that their head coach is a lame duck and that an associate is taking over the following year. Who are they going to listen to? (A) I don't know what the Blues "announced" it was Hitch's last season. Sign him to another 1 year deal without a word more. Or that "we'll re-evaluate at the end of the season." (B) Even worse, announce the next head coach as an associate on the same staff.

If anyone is aware of any other time in NHL history where this arrangement has even been attempted, much less succeeded, please let me know but to me it just spells disaster the moment that Yeo and Hitch have a disagreement on anything.

[gaijin]

I've been having this recurring nightmare that I am slowly turning into kodos. I need to stop trying to analyze too much about this team- it's driving me insane. Two examples:
1. Around mid-point last season, everyone here and elsewhere (to include TV and print media) were lamenting how the team just didn't have the same level of talent compared to previous years, and the season wasn't going to end well. We ended up with two of the toughest playoff matchups possible, and went to the Conference Finals, which we hadn't done in 15 years.
2. A lot is being made about Backes's playoff performance and how we haven't brought in anyone able to replace that, but up until 3 months ago, the biggest knock against Backes was that he disappeared in the playoffs, when it really mattered.

So what am I saying? Hell, I don't know. Other than to say I just don't know where this team stands or how to gauge its potential. I need a beer.

[theohall]

mmmm... beer!

[ecbm]

The contention window for this team is not closing. Not sure where that language is coming from.

I can see both sides. I've wondered about this myself. Consider: we just saw two of the core players whose maturation represented the opening of this window leave for nothing in Backes and Oshie (in the form of Brouwer). For the first time in this cycle, we're talking about good players who we'd like to keep but can't (Shattenkirk, Steen?) and moving them for futures. We're also talking about players (Bouwmeester, Berglund, Stastny) who we thought could help finish the job but haven't and whose contracts have become, to varying degrees, millstones that help lead to better players leave. We're also talking about organizational paralysis (goalie & coaching situations, who's the captain?) and desperation moves (Perron). Now at least some of these things could be interpreted more charitably but it's hardly an absurd suggestion that the window that's been open for the Blues for a few seasons is at least starting to close. What will help the Blues is that many WC teams seem to be at this point in the cycle or near it. Looking around, Calgary and Nashville are the only teams I expect to be significantly improved this season. So barring a disaster, this group gets another go this coming season and almost certainly the next. After that? Yeah, could get dicey quick.

If anyone is aware of any other time in NHL history where this arrangement has even been attempted, much less succeeded

I can't think of an instance in my lifetime. What really gets me is that this was done for Yeo-a scrap heap coach. If they need to reinvent the wheel to bring in Babcock, fine, do it. But Yeo? There's a coach of his quality available literally every off season.

[theohall]

This window closing stuff is crap. That term needs to be defined. Window closing in terms of reaching the playoffs, contending for a cup, what? Because anyone can win the Cup if they reach the playoffs. The Blues are in no danger of missing the playoffs, IMO, for awhile, unless coaching screws stuff up, which could happen under Yeo.

Let's look to the future....

Goaltending - Allen is a starter. Ignoring how well he's played seems silly. Yes, Elliott, with more experience and more starts, played better. Allen only played 99 regular season games over 3 seasons, but the sample looks good. And if his 5-year contract is only a place-holder until Husso is ready... Husso should be with the team the year Bouwmeester leaves. I have no worries about goaltending in terms of getting the team to the playoffs.

Defensively, there is only one "mill-stone" in Bouwmeester. He's gone in 2019 if not sooner, hopefully sooner, via expansion draft.

The rest of the defense - even with Shattenkirk gone has a strong right side with Pietrangelo and Parayko. Right side 3rd d-man - who cares? Bortuzzo or any up and coming prospect. Left side defense Gunnarson is value for what he provides on the left. Edmundson looked real good when paired with Pietrangelo and should improve over his rookie season. Leaving room Lindbohm and the other LD prospects in the system currently being held back by the over-paid Bouwmeester. If Jake Walman repeats this season what he did last at Providence, he is the Blues next "top 2" left defenseman and could be with the team by the end of this upcoming season.

So the defense has a future which is gradually being transitioned to without impacting reaching the playoffs.

Forward is where it gets interesting.

The Blues new corps forwards of the future/now - Tarasenko, Fabbri, Schwartz. 2 of which are under contract for the next 5 seasons.

Lehtera and Perron are both 28. 2nd/3rd line support until futures develop, plus if they play well, could be with the team longer. The question is will Lehtera play more like his first season with the Blues or last season.

Replacing Steen will be tough, but since it appears he wants to stay, I wouldn't be surprised if he winds up with a 3 year contract - again - on the team while futures develop.

Then we get the over-paids in Stastny and Berglund. Berglund is gone next season. Room for someone else to move in who should easily out-perform him. 2 more years of Stastny. Either he gets off the damn stick and finds his scoring touch again, or he's gone in 2018 also for a prospect.

And the rest is depth. Jaskin, Brodziak, Upshall, Reaves, Paajarvi (ugh), Ferraro. Depth can be replaced - hopefully with more productive players, but there is a reason they only get paid 4th line salaries which helps keep the team under the cap.

Is the window closing (reach playoffs) for the Blues as a team? I don't believe so.

Is the window closing (contend in the playoffs) for key Blues veterans who need to **** or get off the pot? Hell, yes.

So, the Blues have goaltending for awhile, defense for awhile, a young corps group of forwards for the future and now, along with some key veterans who won't be here that long and, when gone, provide room to sign better players. Interestingly, who could the Blues afford if they weren't paying Stastny, Berglund, and Bouwmeester? I bet it's more than 3 players and those 3+ would likely improve the team. And Berglund's salary comes off next season.

One other note - the issue with Shattenkirk isn't just salary, it's defensive depth, needing to pay Parayko next season (yes, he is a 2017 RFA). 1) Shattenkirk does not play well on the left side. 2) Pietrangelo and Parayko are here and both deserve right side minutes. 3) Parayko can play the left, but is considerably more effective on the right side. With the three on the roster, one of them gets shorted minutes. 3) Parayko and his bomb shot, when he gets more PP opportunities, is the PP replacement for Shattenkirk.

Most media stories about why the Blues are moving Shattenkirk is "they can't afford him." Well, given the defensive depth, it's not about money completely. Were that depth not there, as in Parayko didn't pan out like he did, the Blues would be finding a way to pay Shattenkirk.

[glen a richter]

The system isn't completely devoid of forwards, it's just that they're not the biggest bunch in the world nor the most purely offensively gifted bunch either.

In the next 3 years, I expect to see guys like Poganski and Thompson all vying for roster spots. In the next 2 years, I expect to see guys like MacEachern, Musil and Blais and this year I expect to see Rattie and Barbashev getting a shot. Just like they're gradually phasing in new d-men to avoid the misery of a completely inexperienced corp, they're in a good position to do the same with the forwards. The approach they've taken thus far, while not especially desirable in that it hasn't yielded a Cup yet, is still better than teams who position themselves so badly that they have no choice but to do complete rebuilds. We're not one of those teams.

[theohall]

The approach they've taken thus far, while not especially desirable in that it hasn't yielded a Cup yet, is still better than teams who position themselves so badly that they have no choice but to do complete rebuilds. We're not one of those teams.

Exactly, which is why it's completely idiotic saying the Blues "window is closing." It's a constantly open window as long as the up and comers perform.

While Backes replacement won't be here this season, Thompson could be that replacement in 2017. He's still adjusting to his size which is best done not at the NHL level.

During the World Juniors games earlier this season, the guys calling the game made a great point. These kids at 19 entering the league are still developing their muscles which makes them at a greater risk for shoulder injuries from hits by experienced players. I can name two examples of this. Barret Jackman in his rookie season and it took him awhile to get to playing the physical game which earned him a Calder. And Conner McDavid last season, which is why they kept him out for so long after the injury. Some guys are exceptions (Fabbri/Tyler Johnson), but it's a major reason not to rush players into the league at 19 and 20.

[ecbm]

Again, it's not a closed issue but I think there's a lot of whistling past the graveyard right above here.

Window means a period of having a realistically good chance at winning it all each season. Every year since Hitchcock's first full one, the Blues are projected as one of the most likely teams to win the cup by pretty much everyone who comments on such things. That will not last forever, obviously.

The Blues' farm is consistently rated in the bottom third of the league these days. You can check it out:

http://www.hockeysfuture.com/team-rankings/

http://thehockeywriters.com/nhl-team-pr ... -rankings/

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2621 ... ine/page/9

To be fair, I did come across one rosier outlook but even this puts the Blues in the middle of the pack:

http://www.thescore.com/news/1064617

And one has to be particularly optimistic about the forwards to see much impact there. I'd love for Thompson to be ready next season but everything I read describes him as a project.

Make no mistake about it: the Shattenkirk chatter is ALL about salary/cap issues. The Blues PP is, as currently constructed, more dependent on him than any other player. If there weren't salary cap constraints, he would be extended and the Blues would either enjoy excellent right-handed D depth or they would consider moving Parayko for the forward or premium left-handed D they need. This is normal, and while it's not rebuilding per se, combined with letting Backes and Oshie/Brouwer walk and the most significant signing being Perron is at least some kind of reload, and not one that has improved the team on paper.

[theohall]

Again, it's not a closed issue but I think there's a lot of whistling past the graveyard right above here.

Window means a period of having a realistically good chance at winning it all each season. Every year since Hitchcock's first full one, the Blues are projected as one of the most likely teams to win the cup by pretty much everyone who comments on such things. That will not last forever, obviously.

The Blues' farm is consistently rated in the bottom third of the league these days. You can check it out:

http://www.hockeysfuture.com/team-rankings/

http://thehockeywriters.com/nhl-team-pr ... -rankings/

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2621 ... ine/page/9

To be fair, I did come across one rosier outlook but even this puts the Blues in the middle of the pack:

http://www.thescore.com/news/1064617

And one has to be particularly optimistic about the forwards to see much impact there. I'd love for Thompson to be ready next season but everything I read describes him as a project.

Make no mistake about it: the Shattenkirk chatter is ALL about salary/cap issues. The Blues PP is, as currently constructed, more dependent on him than any other player. If there weren't salary cap constraints, he would be extended and the Blues would either enjoy excellent right-handed D depth or they would consider moving Parayko for the forward or premium left-handed D they need. This is normal, and while it's not rebuilding per se, combined with letting Backes and Oshie/Brouwer walk and the most significant signing being Perron is at least some kind of reload, and not one that has improved the team on paper.

So the Blues have one weak area based on those reports - the wings. I can pretty much guarantee that won't be addressed solely by prospects moving forward with salary coming free when the over-paid players and veterans move on. Free agency/trades will play a role in the next 3 years in terms of addressing help on the wings. Heck, next season the Blues can afford a quality UFA as long as they don't re-sign Berglund.

Having to address one weak area with cap room coming free in the near future is a far cry from a contending window closing. Contending windows close when a team doesn't have defense and/or goaltending - see Vancouver as an example.

[glen a richter]

I would genuinely have no problem if they flipped Shattenkirk for prospects on the wing. Would it be nice to get an NHL ready player? Sure, but it's not a necessity.

[ecbm]

Having to address one weak area with cap room coming free in the near future is a far cry from a contending window closing. Contending windows close when a team doesn't have defense and/or goaltending - see Vancouver as an example.

I don't really disagree. The Blues window certainly hasn't closed and probably won't for at least a couple seasons BUT you are on the downside of the cycle when you look at a key component on the team like top-9 scoring wingers and have to plan on filling it out via free agency rather than internally. Again, this is normal as the Blues have done very well especially in the regular season, which leads to inferior draft picks, which leads to a greater reliance on free agency which leads to...

I would genuinely have no problem if they flipped Shattenkirk for prospects on the wing. Would it be nice to get an NHL ready player? Sure, but it's not a necessity.

I don't disagree with this. But, honestly, whether we use to term rebuilding or not-moving our top PP Dman for prospects would not be a "hockey trade". It would be a "planning for the future" trade. And you know, the only thing that gives me real angst about that is the prospect of that future unfolding under Armstrong & Yeo.

[evil roy]

Again, it's not a closed issue but I think there's a lot of whistling past the graveyard right above here.

Window means a period of having a realistically good chance at winning it all each season. Every year since Hitchcock's first full one, the Blues are projected as one of the most likely teams to win the cup by pretty much everyone who comments on such things. That will not last forever, obviously.

The Blues' farm is consistently rated in the bottom third of the league these days. You can check it out:

http://www.hockeysfuture.com/team-rankings/

http://thehockeywriters.com/nhl-team-pr ... -rankings/

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2621 ... ine/page/9

To be fair, I did come across one rosier outlook but even this puts the Blues in the middle of the pack:

http://www.thescore.com/news/1064617

And one has to be particularly optimistic about the forwards to see much impact there. I'd love for Thompson to be ready next season but everything I read describes him as a project.

Make no mistake about it: the Shattenkirk chatter is ALL about salary/cap issues. The Blues PP is, as currently constructed, more dependent on him than any other player. If there weren't salary cap constraints, he would be extended and the Blues would either enjoy excellent right-handed D depth or they would consider moving Parayko for the forward or premium left-handed D they need. This is normal, and while it's not rebuilding per se, combined with letting Backes and Oshie/Brouwer walk and the most significant signing being Perron is at least some kind of reload, and not one that has improved the team on paper.

So the Blues have one weak area based on those reports - the wings.

That's not one weak area--that's where 66.6% (mathematically not statistically) of a team's scoring comes from. And that's not at all accounting for the potential dip in scoring due to nobody on this team being able to check so much as a coat.

I can pretty much guarantee that won't be addressed solely by prospects moving forward with salary coming free when the over-paid players and veterans move on. Free agency/trades will play a role in the next 3 years.

Oh. So we only have to wait until 2020 for the cavalry to arrive? Sounds great...

Having to address one weak area with cap room coming free in the near future is a far cry from a contending window closing.

To sum up: having to deal with a toothless troop of wingers for the next 3 years with few options to bring in any upgrades from outside the system due to bad contacts seems to me like the definition of a closing window of opportunity.

[glen a richter]

http://nhl.nbcsports.com/2016/08/26/bra ... yptr=yahoo

With that in mind, Rangers GM Jeff Gorton probably isn’t in a desperate situation to move someone – whether it be a big name such as Nash or not – but New York might amass enough forward pieces to jar a quality defenseman loose