Brian Elliott - Best Goalie in the NHL. Let's fight.

[cprice12]

Best in the NHL right now?

I don't see why not.
If Lundqvist was putting up Elliott-like numbers, he'd be considered the best right now.
If Price was putting up Elliott-like numbers, he'd be considered the best right now.

Why not Elliott?

[ComradeT]

Cause he's on the Blues, stupid... Duh!

[cprice12]

Cause he's on the Blues, stupid... Duh!

Bad argument. Makes no sense.
You lose.

Next.

[theohall]

You win!

[gaijin]

I'm not quite getting the angst- is someone actually saying he is not the best goalie in the NHL right now, or are you simply stating that Elliott is on freakin' fire and no one is recognizing it?

I think it has to do with name recognition as well as his past performance.

Right now, having never won a Cup or a Vezina Trophy, Elliott's name is probably not going to come up in many conversations concerning who is the best goalie in the NHL. The only time it will is by those who (*gasp*) actually are watching games and paying attention to how goalies are doing this year. Evidence- take someone like the Nashville Predators- if Rinne were putting up numbers like Elliott's this year, everyone would be saying how they don't want to end up with a playoff matchup against Nashville because of how Rinne is playing. Right now, no one is saying that about the Blues because Elliott doesn't have the kind of caché (brand recognition, whatever you want to call it) that a Rinne (or Lundqvist, etc.) does. If we win a Cup, he will. Plus it doesn't help that the Blues have absolutely choked in the playoffs since Elliott has been on our team. Not his fault, but no one has ever said the words "Elliott" and "Conference Final" or "Cup Final" in the same sentence. Yet.

Another analogy: there are plenty of better singers out there than Madonna, but nobody has ever heard (or will ever hear) of them- because they don't have the name. If Elliott makes his name (and he is on the right track the way he is playing this year), he will gain that status in goalie discussions.

[dmiles2186]

I'm not saying I feel this way, but the argument against this would boil down to two things: number of games played and the fact that he was 1B at the start of the season, which kind of go hand in hand. Meaning, the media or the overall fan base of the NHL could discount him for not being "the" guy for the entire year.

However....Dubnyk was thrust into this conversation starting around the trade deadline last season, so I don't see why Elliott couldn't be thrown in there just the same.

[WaukeeBlues]

Dubnyk is a great counter-argument against those who would argue the 1B thing. Plus Elliott had to essentially carry this team when Allen was hurt playing something stupid like 20 games in a row? Something like that.

He is saving the Blues' collective lives, again, quietly, and still not getting the praise for it that other goalies get, or would get if they were putting up comparable numbers, yes.

[theohall]

The counter argument is system. Hasn't the Blues tandem of goalies (starter and backup) since Hitchcock took over been near the top of the league, combined, in GAA, SV% and shutouts? Is it the goaltender or the system. Case in point - Halak's numbers are slightly higher after he left the Blues. I wonder how his numbers would look had he stayed in Washington, but they already had Holtby.

If I had to make an argument why the Blues goalies, especially Elliott, aren't mentioned like Rinne, Lundqvist, and Quick, it is the combination of lack of playoff success, runs where they aren't so good for 4-5 games, and Hitchcock's system which dramatically reduces shots against per game. Granted, the Blues top lines haven't really been playing Hitchcock's system this season, so Elliott should be getting more recognition. Problem is most media aren't seeing this at all and continue to make the system assumption.

[theohall]

Just because

No team faced fewer shots against than St Louis from the time Hitchcock took over through last season.

________GA_SA_SV%
2011-12 1st 1st 2nd
2012-13 8th 2nd 6th
2013-14 3rd 3rd 12th
2014-15 5th 2nd 3rd

Then comes this season. If anyone thinks the Blues haven't changed their system to accommodate offense at the sacrifice of defense, look at the Shots Against this season:

________GA_SA_SV%
2015-16 8th 20th 5th

IMO, this makes Elliott's top SV% and top GAA more impressive and deserving of Vezina consideration, but it won't happen because the top candidates have played almost twice as many games.

[gaijin]

IMO, this makes Elliott's top SV% and top GAA more impressive and deserving of Vezina consideration, but it won't happen because the top candidates have played almost twice as many games.

I think if he plays like this in the postseason, you'll hear his name tossed out there. Even though it's not supposed to be based on playoff performance, we all know it has an impact one way or another.

[glen a richter]

How would Elliott's numbers look if he had an identical workload to the Vezina perennials? Maybe just as good, maybe worse, we'll never know as long as this team is riding a 1A/1B.

I'll repeat though, and I know a lot of folks agree with me... goaltending was never the issue in the playoffs, a tendency to have complete and utter meltdowns after falling behind a goal and the lack of confidence that goes with trailing in a playoff game is the main culprit for why this team can't escape the first round. That and the inability to let go of yesterday's loss while playing tomorrow's game. Try to convince me that every time this team loses a playoff game the thought in the front of their heads isn't "here we go again."

[theohall]

How would Elliott's numbers look if he had an identical workload to the Vezina perennials? Maybe just as good, maybe worse, we'll never know as long as this team is riding a 1A/1B.

I'll repeat though, and I know a lot of folks agree with me... goaltending was never the issue in the playoffs, a tendency to have complete and utter meltdowns after falling behind a goal and the lack of confidence that goes with trailing in a playoff game is the main culprit for why this team can't escape the first round. That and the inability to let go of yesterday's loss while playing tomorrow's game. Try to convince me that every time this team loses a playoff game the thought in the front of their heads isn't "here we go again."

Given their resilience this regular season when playing down a goal, hopefully, that regular season resilience will translate into playoff success. Better yet, they actually score goals instead of struggle to score and don't have to worry about being resilient. They've only had 3 losing streaks of more than 2 games this season. One of them was immediately after Steen and Elliott were injured and they had rushed Allen back into goal. Of course, they didn't really have any significant losing streaks last season. IMO, having them helps the team adjust during the season vice not having them and having to figure out how to recover in the playoffs.

[cardsfan04]

While I definitely think Elliott can be underrated, especially nationally, I don't think he's the best goalie in the league. His stats are great this year, but when you factor in workload, I don't think it's clear cut that he's even having the best year of any goalie. I don't know hockey metrics very well, but I'd love to see a stat that attempts to remove the team in front of him similar to what FIP/xFIP does for a pitcher in baseball.

That's not a criticism of Elliott either. He's been phenomenal. We would have fewer points if he didn't play as he has this year. I think saying he is THE best in the league is an exaggeration whereas saying he's having one of the best seasons in the NHL this year would be spot on.

[theohall]

Here's a fun site for stuff kind of like that.

puckalytics

Elliott has allowed 6G in 5v5 play when up by 1 and 9G in 5v5 play when up by 2 or more. Just one stat of many... (15 total goals surrendered when leading. Allen has surrendered 25 goals in 5v5 play when leading).

[ecbm]

Elliott is the top-performing goalie in the league right now. That's pretty much indisputable. That's also a different thing from saying he's the best goalie in the league. That said, the former is actually more important for what your team is doing and will do in the near future. My money's still on Carey Price as the best in the league/world right now but a fat lot of good it's going to do the Canadiens this season/playoffs.

While Dubnyk is relevant to this conversation, I never heard any credible commentators calling him "the best in the league" last season. He was the hottest in the second half and was intriguing because of that in combination with his high but unfulfilled potential. The step back he's taken this year with a full starter's workload (he's already made 3 more starts than in all of last season) might temper some of this enthusiasm. And then there's the system. Halak and Elliott have set consecutive franchise shutout records and Allen is currently tied for second in the league in shutouts despite having played at least 10 fewer games than everyone ahead of him. Blues' goalies, collectively, are tied for first (with the Blackhawks) for shutouts this season. In 2009-10, the Blues finished tied for 9th in team shutouts. Since then, it's gone:

'10-11: 3rd
'11-12: 1st (by 4)
'12-13: t-1st
'13-14: t-2nd
'14-15: t-2nd
'15-16: t-1st

During this period the Blues have used 3 different starting goalies.

Anyway, I just want Elliott to keep it up for the playoffs. Hopefully he does, the Blues extend him and that's that.

[theohall]

While mentioning the system, Blues goaltenders are facing considerably more shots this season than the prior 4, so those shutouts this season are earned, IMO, not just shutouts because of the system.

This season 2212 shots against - hitting last year's mark with 8 game to play.
League average this season is 2180. Blues are behind that for the 1st time under Hitchcock which points to a change somewhere - ie not forcing the forwards to play D as heavily and letting any defenseman join the rush when he has control and a clear opportunity.

2014-15 2228 League Ave 2444
2013-14 2157 League Ave 2456
2012-13 1158 League Ave 1394
2011-12 2183 League Ave 2432

System shutouts the past 4 years, I'll buy. This season, no friggin' way. The goalies earned them with the Blues not locking down the defensive end as they've done in the past.

[APOD]

I think his name will come up for the Vezina if he continues through the next 9 games. He was nominated a few years ago for it. Will he get it no...not unless he stands on his head and pushes this team to the conference or cup finals. If he keeps these numbers or better and we go to the conference finals I think he has a good shot at getting it.

but who am I kidding we all know Hitch is going to play Nilsson in the playoffs

[ecbm]

While mentioning the system, Blues goaltenders are facing considerably more shots this season than the prior 4, so those shutouts this season are earned, IMO, not just shutouts because of the system.

Thing is, I feel like the shots are lower quality this year. It seems to me that, generally speaking, the Blues are trying to play a bit more like a modern NHL team which involves allowing the opposition more possession in low-quality areas, kind of like a lot of the possession the Blues have had in recent years. Much like it would be cool to have an FIP like stat for goalies to remove the effect of the team in front of them, it would also be cool to have some way to measure quality of shots, something along the lines of "hard hit balls" in baseball.

Barring a collapse, I don't think you can keep Elliott out of the Vezina conversation this season.

[theohall]

While mentioning the system, Blues goaltenders are facing considerably more shots this season than the prior 4, so those shutouts this season are earned, IMO, not just shutouts because of the system.

Thing is, I feel like the shots are lower quality this year. It seems to me that, generally speaking, the Blues are trying to play a bit more like a modern NHL team which involves allowing the opposition more possession in low-quality areas, kind of like a lot of the possession the Blues have had in recent years. Much like it would be cool to have an FIP like stat for goalies to remove the effect of the team in front of them, it would also be cool to have some way to measure quality of shots, something along the lines of "hard hit balls" in baseball.

Barring a collapse, I don't think you can keep Elliott out of the Vezina conversation this season.

The closest thing to the FIP thing I can find, for now, is the Quality Starts stat from Hockey-Reference. Unfortunately, it isn't measuring saves against quality chances. It's based on starts with SV% greater than the league SV% or at least 88.5% when facing less than 20 shots.

With a minimum of 25 games started, only Crawford and Schneider have a better QS% than Elliott and they've both played almost twice the games. It would be interesting to see the numbers had Elliott not been injured.

For reference sake, Allen is 18th in QS% with the 25 start minimum.

Trying to figure out how to make a Team QS% work.... Blues are at 58% and I'm curious to see where that ranks in the league.

While Elliott may enter the Vezina conversation, he can't win it based on playoff performance. Regular season awards are voted on after the final game of the regular season.

[glen a richter]

I guarantee they'll look at games played as a major factor. He simply doesn't have the time in to be considered. It's not that he does or doesn't deserve to win it or at least be mentioned for the Vezina, but I can't imagine he'll get anything beyond maybe some passing mention when it comes down to who takes home the hardware.

At the end of the day, I don't care what anyone on this team wins... Vezina, Norris, Rocket Richard. I'm tired of individual awards and consolation prizes. The only hardware I care about this team getting their hands on is the Cup and I think we can all agree on that... except Kerfuffle.