Rumor: Oshie to Caps for 1st Rd. Pick

[cprice12]

http://starsandsticks.com/2015/06/23/wa ... hie-trade/



The Washington Capitals have not made their desire to acquire a top six right wing a secret. It is one of the primary objectives of the Washington Capitals off-season. Since the free agent market is barren and does not have many options as far as top six forwards, the Washington Capitals will likely have to add one via a trade. One of the biggest commodities who could be available on the trade market is St. Louis Blues right wing T.J. Oshie.

The St. Louis Blues, fresh off another first round exit in the playoffs, could be open to moving some of the core players, including Oshie.

You look at the St. Louis Blues. Again, they’re not pressing to doing anything, but they’re more open than they’ve ever been to a team calling them on one of their core guys – their veteran guys – and saying, ‘Do you feel like moving an apple for an apple.’ I think the Blues would do that because they know that something is not quite right in terms of them being a disappointment in the first round every year. So they’re an interesting team to keep an eye on. – Today’s Slapshot

Oshie would certainly be a nice addition to the Washington Capitals. You probably remember Mr. Oshie as being the American hero for leading Team USA to a shootout victory over the Russians in the 2014 Olympics. Well, the Washington Capitals have a tendency to find themselves in quite a few shootouts. Seeing as how Oshie is one of the best shootout specialists in the world, he would obviously help them win more shootouts.

That doesn’t begin to describe the true value of Oshie though. Oshie is a very consistent player as far as scoring.

Oshie is a consistent goal scorer, with neither a poor nor remarkable NHL season on his books. He usually tallies right around 20 goals per season, give or take a couple. Perhaps that kind of consistency is just what the Capitals need since some of their forwards have endured up-and-down seasons. – The Hockey Writers

He has over 50 points in his last three full seasons and was on pace for around 50 points in a full season for the lockout-shortened 2012-2013 season. He’s not a goal scorer, as he has only scored more than 20 goals in a single season once, but he’s a playmaker who tends to make the guys around him better. The Washington Capitals could certainly use a guy like that on one of their top two forward lines.

As productive as Oshie is, his possession stats are not that impressive. His possession stats suggest that he neither helps nor hurts his team when he’s on the ice. All stats are at even strength and are courtesy of war-on-ice. Here’s a glossary of the stats if you need it.

Of course, possession stats are just one part of the picture. However, it is a tad bit concerning that a player as talented as Oshie doesn’t really drive possession. That said, Oshie is a consistently productive player, so I think that makes up for that.

Let’s see how Oshie matches up to his peers as far as shot generation and point production because I feel those are two areas where the Washington Capitals must be better. I narrowed the list down by only including forwards who played at least 1000 minutes at even strength (Oshie played 1038:14). 121 forwards qualified. All rates are at even strength and are courtesy of Hockey Analysis.

(See article for chart.)

The Washington Capitals should find that a bit concerning. If they are going to trade for a top line right wing (I think they shouldn’t because Andre Burakovsky is one), it better be someone who is capable of generating shots because Nicklas Backstrom isn’t good at that. Burakovsky did extremely well while paired with Alex Ovechkin and Backstrom. Plus, I can’t fathom Barry Trotz having a second line featuring three younger players on a consistent basis. So I don’t think Oshie is the best fit for the first line.

I don’t think he’s a perfect fit for the second line either. What the second line needs isn’t another playmaker. The second line will already feature Evgeny Kuznetsov and Marcus Johansson in 2015-2016. What the Washington Capitals need on the second line is another finisher. That said, there aren’t many of those available, so Oshie might be a good fit on the second line if the Washington Capitals can’t get Patrick Sharp. Oshie would certainly be a better fit for the second line than Brouwer.

What Will Oshie Cost The Washington Capitals

If the Capitals trade for Oshie, their 2015 first round pick will likely have to be involved since the Blues would like to add a first round pick since they traded theirs to the Winnipeg Jets. However, if the Caps trade for Oshie, that will leave them with a bit of a logjam at right wing and it would likely force the Capitals to have to fourth line Tom Wilson for yet another season. That’s not ideal. I would include Troy Brouwer in a trade for T.J. Oshie on top of the Capitals 2015 first round pick. I’d probably have the Blues include a fourth round pick to even things out.

That deal would make everyone happy. The Blues shake up their roster and get their first round pick. The Capitals get their top six forward. I’d do that trade if Oshie’s the best option available (which is likely to be the case if the Caps don’t get Sharp).

Let’s take a vote Caps fans. Should the Capitals trade for T.J. Oshie? Or would he not really solve the main issues with the Capitals?

[glen a richter]

For the #22 pick, no. If they turn the #22 into a higher pick with a follow up trade then sure.

[cprice12]

For the #22 pick, no. If they turn the #22 into a higher pick with a follow up trade then sure.

My deal with trading Oshie for a pick is that doesn't make us better next year...(unless they are trying to free up salary to sign a big name)...and the goal is to win a cup next season.

Oshie is worth more than the #22 overall pick anyway. We'd have to get something else as well...like another pick or a decent prospect...but again, that doesn't make us better next season.

[APOD]

Oshie and our 4th or early 5th for the Caps 1st rounder and Tom Wilson or Troy Brouwer.

Brouwer is a tad cheaper than Oshie puts up like numbers.

Tom Wilson is well Tom Wilson....Reckless IMO on the way he hits, low point production but is only 21 years old and still developing. Play between the 4th and 3rd lines.

I think we could get all 3 if we added edmunson as the Caps are loosing Green and will be looking into their defensive depth the next couple of years.

Again Brouwer can replace an Oshie, but the need is to get someone better than Oshie and thats where the probelm lies still.

[APOD]

For the #22 pick, no. If they turn the #22 into a higher pick with a follow up trade then sure.

Still not sure what Tom Wilsons worth is but could we trade the #22 pick and Wilson to move up?

And honestly I know you want Strome but if he doesn't work out right away or in fact any 1st rounder we might get.......Do we really need to be in the first round or could we get away with trading Oshie and some change for a better body.

[glen a richter]

I would take Marner too. I don't want Hanifin. I don't see any immediate need to draft any more defensemen. It's not what this team needs. Strome and Marner both could step in this season.

I have no idea what Army has planned, but the way he talks about old core and new core leads me to believe that he wants the new core to be the guiding light of the team moving forward, and also construct a good portion of the team as the newer core. This includes Jaskin, Rattie, Lindbohm for sure. It could include Fabbri and Barbashev, maybe Descheneau, maybe whoever they take with the 1st rounder if they move high enough to get a guy who's basically NHL ready. I envision, in my wishful thinking, the STL line staying intact, Stastny centering Jaskin and Backes as the second line, Steen, Fabbri and Rattie making up another line. The 4th line depends on what happens in the draft.

The defense I'm fine with. Not a fan of Bouwmeester or Gunnarsson but I guess they're part of the immediate plan, so it is what it is.

[Kerfuffle]

I think Oshie straight up for a #1 pick is a good deal for the Blues. Oshie's not the answer in St. Louis and getting a #1 rounder for him not only frees up cap space but gets the blues probably a pretty good prospect at #22.

[cprice12]

I think Oshie straight up for a #1 pick is a good deal for the Blues. Oshie's not the answer in St. Louis and getting a #1 rounder for him not only frees up cap space but gets the blues probably a pretty good prospect at #22.

In all fairness, Oshie is much better than a "pretty good prospect". And at #22, there is no guarantee he'll even play in the NHL.
Oshie is worth more to the organization, at least in the short term, than the #22 pick is.
Apparently, a lot of teams have serious interest in Oshie...and rightfully so...which would only mean the asking price may go up.
And while having cap space is nice, the Blues don't really need to clear cap space. So it's not like they are forced to move a guy like Oshie...which only works in their favor in terms of negotiations in a trade.

[ecbm]

I could accept this, mainly as a salary dump for re-signing Tank. Would seriously like them to take on a bad contract like Berglund or Ott as well since I do think Oshie is with more than a bottom-third first rounder. Then again, with the cap being what it is it's going to be hard to get teams to take on salary.

[Kerfuffle]

I think Oshie straight up for a #1 pick is a good deal for the Blues. Oshie's not the answer in St. Louis and getting a #1 rounder for him not only frees up cap space but gets the blues probably a pretty good prospect at #22.

In all fairness, Oshie is much better than a "pretty good prospect". And at #22, there is no guarantee he'll even play in the NHL.
Oshie is worth more to the organization, at least in the short term, than the #22 pick is.
Apparently, a lot of teams have serious interest in Oshie...and rightfully so...which would only mean the asking price may go up.
And while having cap space is nice, the Blues don't really need to clear cap space. So it's not like they are forced to move a guy like Oshie...which only works in their favor in terms of negotiations in a trade.

It's still a big contract for a shootout specialist and with the new format going to 3-on-3 there's a chance less games go to a shootout making Oshie more expendable at this point. The extra cap room can be used to give Tank his contract. Also have to consider the fact that the Blues want to shake things up with the core so I think Armstrong has to seriously consider it. Maybe you can get a #1 plus another pick for Oshie and even a player in return. There's a thin free agent class of forwards this offseason which gives Oshie a higher trade value than he would have. But Blues have to be reasonable in asking price in return.

[ecbm]

a shootout specialist

This parroting of a media narrative is a lot less analytical than you usually are, K. Truth is, he wasn't even that good in the shootout last year. I'm sure anyone seriously interested in acquiring him will know more about him than what he could learn from one shootout in Sochi.

Oshie was 62nd in points in the league last year. That's the same as $9M Corey Perry. Now Oshie isn't Perry but it's not a night-and-day difference. That number also put him ahead of Bobby Ryan ($5.5M) and Eric Staal ($9.25M). Oshie averaged 2:30 more per game of ice time than Milan Lucic ($6M; 18:50 v 16:24). That's 8 fewer seconds per game than Evgeni Malkin ($9.5M). Oshie started 52.1% of his shifts in his defensive end last season-2 full points better than Ryan Kesler ($5M) and 3 points better than Toews ($10M-but you knew that!). And he plays both PK and PP. He's never had fewer than 77 hits in a full season.

I understand teams value guys differently. I wouldn't be looking for an absolutely premium return for Oshie. But a late first rounder is a bit light for me-that's what Edmonton got for Perron and Oshie is a more useful player. So if I'm Armstrong and someone approaches me about Oshie making offers clearly based on the idea that he's a "shootout specialist" and nothing more I'd politely find a way to end the conversation as it would be a somewhat insulting waste of time.

[cardsfan04]

Don't like Oshie for 22nd pick overall. 2 reasons:

1. He's not a shootout specialist. That's his claim to fame nationally. But, he's a solid 2-way player that can play special teams. He's not a first liner like he's being used. But, he's a decent 2nd liner. He just happens to also thrive at shootouts. Brad Boyes was a shootout specialist. He would be absent for 65 minutes and then score a shootout goal like it was nothing. Oshie is much more than that.

2. Oshie was a late 1st rounder himself. Trading him for a late first rounder straight up is kinda like trading him for a younger version of himself without the guarantee that he makes it in the NHL. Yeah it clears cap space, but that's a silver lining to a trade, not a success of it when we're trying to win a Cup.

[Kerfuffle]

Whether we agree or disagree on Oshie's value - the perception of him around the league continues to be that he's a shootout specialist. It will be hard for Armstrong to overcome that especially since Oshie disappears come playoff time.

Just read this article on Oshie --> http://www.wingingitinmotown.com/2015/6 ... ar-nyquist

[glen a richter]

I've said in the past that we, as a whole group of Blues fans, tend to overvalue some of our players. I think Oshie is the one we overvalue the most. The fact (supposed) that there are at least three eastern conference teams expressing interest is a blessing because it creates a bidding war for a guy who has been overvalued. He's replaceable for sure. Shootout specialist? No, though, to be fair, it is what he's best known for globally because of the Olympics. Crucial component to this team moving forward? Also no. Let the other GM's one-up each others offers and maximize the return, then estimate how far you can make them go before you get greedy and everyone pulls out.

[cardsfan04]

I've said in the past that we, as a whole group of Blues fans, tend to overvalue some of our players. I think Oshie is the one we overvalue the most. The fact (supposed) that there are at least three eastern conference teams expressing interest is a blessing because it creates a bidding war for a guy who has been overvalued. He's replaceable for sure. Shootout specialist? No, though, to be fair, it is what he's best known for globally because of the Olympics. Crucial component to this team moving forward? Also no. Let the other GM's one-up each others offers and maximize the return, then estimate how far you can make them go before you get greedy and everyone pulls out.

Completely 100% agree. He came up when we were awful and became a fan favorite because he didn't suck like 90% of the team. He visually gives 100% and is easy to love as a fan. As a result, he's overvalued by our fans. The flip is true, however, in that he became a known player in Sochi as the shootout guy. There's a happy medium though. He's a nice piece that can help a top team, but he's not the missing piece unless your team is really top heavy without 2nd-3rd line depth. He's very replaceable here because we're full of supporting guys.

[cprice12]

I think Oshie straight up for a #1 pick is a good deal for the Blues. Oshie's not the answer in St. Louis and getting a #1 rounder for him not only frees up cap space but gets the blues probably a pretty good prospect at #22.

In all fairness, Oshie is much better than a "pretty good prospect". And at #22, there is no guarantee he'll even play in the NHL.
Oshie is worth more to the organization, at least in the short term, than the #22 pick is.
Apparently, a lot of teams have serious interest in Oshie...and rightfully so...which would only mean the asking price may go up.
And while having cap space is nice, the Blues don't really need to clear cap space. So it's not like they are forced to move a guy like Oshie...which only works in their favor in terms of negotiations in a trade.

It's still a big contract for a shootout specialist and with the new format going to 3-on-3 there's a chance less games go to a shootout making Oshie more expendable at this point.

You have brought this up before, and I explained how he isn't just a shootout specialist.
He puts up a decent amount of points, is a good penalty killer, plays on the PP, helps shut down the other team's top line, etc, etc.

The extra cap room can be used to give Tank his contract.

Like I said though, they don't need to dump Oshie's contract to sign Tank. They have the room, as long as he doesn't sign for $9 million per...which he won't. It will likely be in the $7 million area.

Also have to consider the fact that the Blues want to shake things up with the core so I think Armstrong has to seriously consider it.

I get this mindset, and yes, they probably should do something to shake up the core a bit...but that doesn't mean selling off an asset for less than fair market value.

Maybe you can get a #1 plus another pick for Oshie and even a player in return. There's a thin free agent class of forwards this offseason which gives Oshie a higher trade value than he would have. But Blues have to be reasonable in asking price in return.

The thing is though, they don't have to trade Oshie. So they don't have to be accept a less than fair offer. If someone wants him and the Blues are willing to deal him, then that's a start...but if the offer doesn't make this team better next season or it doesn't lead to a deal that makes the team better next season, then it wouldn't make any sense to trade him. We're not rebuilding. Any moves made in the offseason will be made in an attempt to win the cup next year. And just getting a #22 draft pick in return isn't enough...unless, like I said, it directly leads to something else that makes the team better.

In summary...
1) Oshie is far more than just a shootout specialist, even though that is what he is known for because of the Olympics.
2) The Blues do not have to clear salary to sign Tarasenko & Allen, unless they aren't spending to the cap OR unless they have plans on acquiring other higher paid players. And if they really did need to shed salary, they would trade Ott or Berglund, OR, put one on waivers long before "dumping" Oshie.
3) Moves made in the offseason will be made in one way shape or form, to make the team better next season.
4) So taking points #2 & #3 into consideration, just getting a late 1st rd. draft pick in return for Oshie seems light.

Of course, I could be wrong about this stuff...but this is just how I see it. I'd rather have Oshie on this team next year than the #22 pick playing wherever...in the QMJHL or the KHL or Timbuktu wherever he'll be playing and not helping this team next year.

[ecbm]

Whether we agree or disagree on Oshie's value - the perception of him around the league continues to be that he's a shootout specialist.

That's flatly bullshit and you're basically asking me to pay no attention to your opinion on this. If that's all he was, nobody would want him-just like nobody wants Brad Boyes.

I've said in the past that we, as a whole group of Blues fans, tend to overvalue some of our players. I think Oshie is the one we overvalue the most. The fact (supposed) that there are at least three eastern conference teams expressing interest is a blessing because it creates a bidding war for a guy who has been overvalued. He's replaceable for sure. Shootout specialist? No, though, to be fair, it is what he's best known for globally because of the Olympics. Crucial component to this team moving forward? Also no. Let the other GM's one-up each others offers and maximize the return, then estimate how far you can make them go before you get greedy and everyone pulls out.

Completely 100% agree. He came up when we were awful and became a fan favorite because he didn't suck like 90% of the team. He visually gives 100% and is easy to love as a fan. As a result, he's overvalued by our fans. The flip is true, however, in that he became a known player in Sochi as the shootout guy. There's a happy medium though. He's a nice piece that can help a top team, but he's not the missing piece unless your team is really top heavy without 2nd-3rd line depth. He's very replaceable here because we're full of supporting guys.

Do you guys disagree with my point that he's more valuable than David Perron? It would be interesting if you did because everyone here was arguing to me last season that Perron is worthless. David Perron netted a late first rounder. If I can't get more than that for Oshie he's worth more playing for me-period. And if he happens to peel off a career-best season? Yeah, we'd get a lot more than the #22 pick.

As for clearing salary, Curt's absolutely right that there are several far better candidates for that.

[cardsfan04]

I think Oshie is definitely more valuable than Perron. Perron has high-end offensive talent, but only shows it occasionally and doesn't contribute elsewhere. Oshie isn't great at anything (but shootouts), but does a lot of things decently well. If Perron were to turn into a 40G scorer, he's have more value. But, if Perron's just gonna be a 20-30G guy, Oshie is far more valuable.

[Kerfuffle]

In addition to using the Oshie money to sign Tank the Blues could also make a play for Dubnyk if he doesn't re-up with Minnesota by July 1st. You guys getting Dubnyk would be huge.

[cprice12]

Whether we agree or disagree on Oshie's value - the perception of him around the league continues to be that he's a shootout specialist.

Maybe among other team's fans it is.
But not for people who actually watch him play.

Just read this article on Oshie --> http://www.wingingitinmotown.com/2015/6 ... ar-nyquist

I read it...and he mentions the olympics and his goals and assists and how his PPG isn't as good as some others.
Real in depth there.
Oshie puts up decent offensive numbers, but his value gets a real bump from his tenacity, his creativity and his checking ability and how he plays well in all situations.

His playoff performance really is the only thing that is a knock on him. Other than that blemish (and it's a legitimate gripe), he is a great guy to have on your team...which is why I don't want to see the Blues give him away for a late 1st round pick. That would be tragic.

I'm going to go out on a limb and say you don't watch a lot of Blues games since you don't live in the area. So I think you are going to have to trust the folks on this board (that watch him all of the time) that say he is a much more valuable player than you think he is...and he certainly isn't just a shootout specialist...which, has been pointed out, he wasn't that great at last year.

If other teams don't want to offer more for him, then I'm perfectly happy keeping him.