Mid-Season report

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gaijin
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Mid-Season report

Post by gaijin »

Alternate thread title: Whoa... we're halfway there...

May as well make a thread to discuss how we all feel the Blues are doing at the midway point (41 games played, 41 games to go).

My thoughts- We're on pace for 106 points, which is no slouch. I think finishing 1st in the Division is within reach, but in all likelihood we'll need some help from CHI and NAS to accomplish it. However, considering how quickly they went from playing mediocre hockey to playing fantastic hockey recently, I'm not convinced they can continue this level of play for the entire rest of the season. I know we have everyone healthy, and that's a huge boon, but this 3-game stretch has the feel of luck (everything going our way) rather than the new norm.

My biggest concern is still defense- I don't know what these guys did in the offseason, but for most of this year so far, I'd say they've been merely average.
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Re: Mid-Season report

Post by ViPeRx007 »

Luck? The St. Louis Blues don't have luck! All I'm seeing is a Blues team that's playing the way we envisioned they would before the season started, and when they started out slow everyone flipped out. Now that they've put together a few good games it's luck? That's not fair. Sure, 3 games out of 41 isn't enough of a sample space to make any predictions either way, but I'm seeing a lot of solid puck play, shots being driven in and goalies making saves. I'm not seeing a lot of weird bounces and misplays resulting in goals which I typically consider luck. That's usually what happens against us. To me, it's a team that finally clicked. Maybe I'm crazy.

My honest assessment so far? Factoring in the new guys, injuries, illnesses and that we're still on pace for 106 pts I'm happy. Can they keep up the level of play they've shown the last 3? No; not in the amount of goals being scored, at least. Did they keep up the level of poor play the previous 3-4 before that? No. There are ups and downs, but I really do believe that this recent stretch is closer to what should be the norm than it is just luck.

I'm not an idiot. I'm still worried about Anaheim, LA, Chicago but we've beaten them all this season...in our building. The road against those teams is where the concern is. I like where they are right now though.

Where we really need this luck that you think we have is in April.
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Re: Mid-Season report

Post by ComradeT »

Don't think it's luck either. The team finally has a line capable of scoring at will which makes other teams adjust their line assignments, which allows others to contribute to scoring. When Steen was the team's leading scorer last year, all the teams needed to do is shut down the SOB line - done deal (and Blues still managed to win quite a few games). It's a tougher job for the opponents nowadays. Our third line is no slouch either. Bergie aside, Jaskin and Stastny have really gelled and if this continues, we have three scoring line on the ice, which is what the best teams are usually able to put on the ice, instead of a scoring line and two shut-down line, which is what Blues used to have (Steen's little run aside, as soon as he fell off the hot streak, it was all about Schwartz, Vova and Sobotka for the rest of the season and the playoffs).

As for the defense, Gunnarsson may be as underrated as Schwartz in terms of his impact on the team. Since he's been back, all pairings have looked much better, including Pie/Bouw and Jax/Butler (please, no Cole anymore). I actually like Butler a lot this season, once he figured things out, he's been playing really well. Our transition has improved tremendously, and the way the Blues have been putting pressure on in the offensive zone is on par with Chicago and the Kings.

All of this said, we all know that the Hawks, the Kings and the Ducks are the true measuring sticks when it comes to the Blues. Until they play one of these three, nothing is certain. This might as well be a lucky streak! And then :facepalm:
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Re: Mid-Season report

Post by cardsfan04 »

Count me in on the not luck train. The team isn't going to average 6-7 goals per game, nor only allow 1 1/3 per game. In that sense, they are overachieving.

But, I absolutely think that when this team gels, they can dominate any team and they have the scoring punch to really hammer it home now. The last 3 games shouldn't be a surprise. Ignore the actual score, the way we controlled those games is what we should expect on a nightly basis.

I think when healthy and playing its best, this year's Blues team might be the best I've ever seen.
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Re: Mid-Season report

Post by gaijin »

I think we're pretty much saying the same thing. While their play over the last 3 games is more in line with this team's expected potential, we can't expect the same results as the last 3 games over the entire rest of the season. I like cardsfan04's terminology better than mine- "overachieving" is a better description than "luck."
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Re: Mid-Season report

Post by glen a richter »

Realistically I think this team should average near 4 goals a game. Expecting 2 from the STL line and 2 elsewhere isn't unreasonable. Like Comrade said, they're able to roll lines now and if only we had a frikken 4th line that could contribute something offensively, then look out. But when you can roll lines and even out the TOI, everyone stays more fresh longer into the game and longer into the season. It's the reason the fukkin Rangers have won 13 of 14 or something gaudy like that. No one on that team is logging less than 10 minutes a game. Doesn't matter who you play, that's a recipe for success.
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Re: Mid-Season report

Post by TSUCookieMonster »

B+. Overall it's been a good year. There are some games they should have won, but defensive lapses or offense gone cold have cost some points in the standings. As long as they don't end the regular season like last year, I'll be happy (and playoffs) A Stanley cup win is also necessary.
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Re: Mid-Season report

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glen a richter wrote:Realistically I think this team should average near 4 goals a game. Expecting 2 from the STL line and 2 elsewhere isn't unreasonable. Like Comrade said, they're able to roll lines now and if only we had a frikken 4th line that could contribute something offensively, then look out. But when you can roll lines and even out the TOI, everyone stays more fresh longer into the game and longer into the season. It's the reason the fukkin Rangers have won 13 of 14 or something gaudy like that. No one on that team is logging less than 10 minutes a game. Doesn't matter who you play, that's a recipe for success.
I think we should definitely average over 3 per game, but expecting one line to average 2 goals per game is a lot I think. That would mean it scored 164 on the season. Split 3 ways is 53 goals per player on that line.
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Re: Mid-Season report

Post by flyingnote38 »

Timmermann's New Year's Day 'mid-season' report summed it up pretty well; the Blues performance to that point was fairly accurately reflected in the Central Division standings. They were better than the teams behind them, but not as good as the Hawks or Preds against whom they have gone 2-4. Barring some second half surprise, those look to be the two teams we will need to beat to advance to the Conference Finals. Should we win the division, given our luck of late, we would no doubt land the Kings as the 7th seed.

The Blues have had long stretches of good hockey, but also some of bad hockey. On the whole, by position, I'd say:

1) Goaltending depth is an issue. When healthy, Elliot has been very good. Allen and Brodeur have mostly looked like they don't belong in the NHL at this point. An injury to Elliot and we will be in trouble.

2)Defense, other than Shattenkirk, has been inconsistent. Butler has played ok and Gunnarsson hasn't really been healthy enough to get a read on, but the rest have been good some nights and other nights make plays that have you slapping your head and that end up costing them the game. Some of our defensive issues appear to be the system. The Blues back off the blue line way too much and often seem to be disorganized in the defensive zone. You know those times its 5-on-5 but looks like we are killing a penalty because the puck keeps heading to wide open opponents while we chase to play catch up.

3) Offense. To use coach speak, I don't hate our top 9. For the first quarter, the STL line carried the Blues. More recently, Backes' line has been clicking and Stastny's line has joined in giving us 3 productive units. In part this has resulted from the very unBluesy, unHitchy move of playing Jaskin, finding an in house winger for Stastny that I thought would need to come via trade. We'll see come playoff time if Hitch finds some reason to sit Jaskin and promote Ott (which would suck).

Looking at the composition of our lines, the team we most closely resemble is the Blackhawks: three scoring lines and a 4th line of PK type defensive forwards and a goon. I think we'd be better off making changes to our 9th through 12th forwards rather than dressing Reaves, Ott and Lapierre every night (especially in the playoffs). To put a label on it, I think we're better off trying to outKing the Kings, rather than outBlackhawk the Blackhawks. The difference being that the Hawks and Blues like to say they roll 4 lines, but usage and icetime suggests otherwise. A big reason for the Kings' success last year is the really do roll 4 lines. Their 4th line center in last year's playoffs was Mike Richards. Admittedly, he had played himself down to the 4th, but he'd still cream any of the Blues' or Hawks' 4th liners in a skills contest any day of the week. Sutter didn't fret line matchups and that ability really helps winning on the road.
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Re: Mid-Season report

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glen a richter wrote:Realistically I think this team should average near 4 goals a game. Expecting 2 from the STL line and 2 elsewhere isn't unreasonable. Like Comrade said, they're able to roll lines now and if only we had a frikken 4th line that could contribute something offensively, then look out.
The #1 team in Goals Per Game (Tampa) is averaging 3.23. So 4 is....well that would mean the Blues would never lose, I guess. The Blues are 3rd in the league at 3.14. I'm with cardsfan, I think it's a little crazy to expect 2 goals per game from any line, no matter how good they are. Gretzky, Howe, Lemieux on a line probably couldn't average 2 goals per game over an 82 game season (but they're also superhuman, so maybe they could).
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Re: Mid-Season report

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dmiles2186 wrote:
glen a richter wrote:Realistically I think this team should average near 4 goals a game. Expecting 2 from the STL line and 2 elsewhere isn't unreasonable. Like Comrade said, they're able to roll lines now and if only we had a frikken 4th line that could contribute something offensively, then look out.
The #1 team in Goals Per Game (Tampa) is averaging 3.23. So 4 is....well that would mean the Blues would never lose, I guess. The Blues are 3rd in the league at 3.14. I'm with cardsfan, I think it's a little crazy to expect 2 goals per game from any line, no matter how good they are. Gretzky, Howe, Lemieux on a line probably couldn't average 2 goals per game over an 82 game season (but they're also superhuman, so maybe they could).
Don't forget that while this team is #3 in scoring in the NHL, Nyghtwynde maintains they can't score.
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Re: Mid-Season report

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glen a richter wrote:
dmiles2186 wrote:
glen a richter wrote:Realistically I think this team should average near 4 goals a game. Expecting 2 from the STL line and 2 elsewhere isn't unreasonable. Like Comrade said, they're able to roll lines now and if only we had a frikken 4th line that could contribute something offensively, then look out.
The #1 team in Goals Per Game (Tampa) is averaging 3.23. So 4 is....well that would mean the Blues would never lose, I guess. The Blues are 3rd in the league at 3.14. I'm with cardsfan, I think it's a little crazy to expect 2 goals per game from any line, no matter how good they are. Gretzky, Howe, Lemieux on a line probably couldn't average 2 goals per game over an 82 game season (but they're also superhuman, so maybe they could).
Don't forget that while this team is #3 in scoring in the NHL, Nyghtwynde maintains they can't score.
Yes...and we're also #1 in PP. So clearly we need help in firepower, for sure.
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Re: Mid-Season report

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dmiles2186 wrote:
glen a richter wrote:
dmiles2186 wrote:
glen a richter wrote:Realistically I think this team should average near 4 goals a game. Expecting 2 from the STL line and 2 elsewhere isn't unreasonable. Like Comrade said, they're able to roll lines now and if only we had a frikken 4th line that could contribute something offensively, then look out.
The #1 team in Goals Per Game (Tampa) is averaging 3.23. So 4 is....well that would mean the Blues would never lose, I guess. The Blues are 3rd in the league at 3.14. I'm with cardsfan, I think it's a little crazy to expect 2 goals per game from any line, no matter how good they are. Gretzky, Howe, Lemieux on a line probably couldn't average 2 goals per game over an 82 game season (but they're also superhuman, so maybe they could).
Don't forget that while this team is #3 in scoring in the NHL, Nyghtwynde maintains they can't score.
Yes...and we're also #1 in PP. So clearly we need help in firepower, for sure.
And lead the league in hat tricks which is kinda meaningless, but having 5 players with a hat trick midway through the season is impressive.
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Re: Mid-Season report

Post by glen a richter »

The power play is damn good. I remember referring to it as the Ameren UE power outage back in the lean days. Muller has it humming though. Hopefully they can keep it in high gear come playoff time. That's as good a way as any to shut down an opponent in a 7 game series.
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Re: Mid-Season report

Post by dmiles2186 »

cardsfan04 wrote:
dmiles2186 wrote:
glen a richter wrote:
dmiles2186 wrote:
glen a richter wrote:Realistically I think this team should average near 4 goals a game. Expecting 2 from the STL line and 2 elsewhere isn't unreasonable. Like Comrade said, they're able to roll lines now and if only we had a frikken 4th line that could contribute something offensively, then look out.
The #1 team in Goals Per Game (Tampa) is averaging 3.23. So 4 is....well that would mean the Blues would never lose, I guess. The Blues are 3rd in the league at 3.14. I'm with cardsfan, I think it's a little crazy to expect 2 goals per game from any line, no matter how good they are. Gretzky, Howe, Lemieux on a line probably couldn't average 2 goals per game over an 82 game season (but they're also superhuman, so maybe they could).
Don't forget that while this team is #3 in scoring in the NHL, Nyghtwynde maintains they can't score.
Yes...and we're also #1 in PP. So clearly we need help in firepower, for sure.
And lead the league in hat tricks which is kinda meaningless, but having 5 players with a hat trick midway through the season is impressive.
And per the broadcast last night, the Blues have 7....SEVEN...on pace to score 20 goals.
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Re: Mid-Season report

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Re: Mid-Season report

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glen a richter wrote:The power play is damn good. I remember referring to it as the Ameren UE power outage back in the lean days. Muller has it humming though. Hopefully they can keep it in high gear come playoff time. That's as good a way as any to shut down an opponent in a 7 game series.
Yeah. They are really clicking now.
Even on the PP's where they don't score, they look outstanding. The puck possession and movement in the offensive zone has been impressive.

This is fun to watch.
And, of course, we'll probably be on some kind of great win streak when that 10 day break in the schedule comes...and it will screw it all up.
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Re: Mid-Season report

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My honest assessement.

1) Lapierre sucks and shouldn't be playing at all. Ott needs to be moved due to salary, which will prevent him from being moved, but he is decent for a 4th liner - especially in comparison to Lapierre. (I know, the salary thing. I don't care about that right now since play on the ice is what matters to win games and Lapierre loses way too many puck battles and is slow in the defensive zone picking up opponents, still - even after being benched).
2) Jaden Schwartz is a huge catalyst on this team and the Blues don't have someone to replace him (AFAIK). The reason I say this: a) Blues are rolling prior to Schwartz being injured (21-8-2). b) Schwartz gets hurt (1-5-1) while management keeps playing guys nowhere near Schwartz level and it shows. c) Schwartz returns and the Blues go 4-0 with an offensive explosion of 24 goals in 4 games. Maybe there is someone in the system, but the next time Schwartz is injured (knock on wood), they need to bring up the talented kids and not have the Chris Porter's and Maxim Lapierre's getting that extra ice time.
3) Management needs to start playing kids on that 4th line, instead of continuing to roll vets which we already know can't get it done when the inevitable injuries happen.
4) Tarasenko is the most dynamic scorer the Blues have ever had on the team. I don't know of one player in Blues history who could have pulled off the goal Tarasenko did vs Carolina to tie the game.
5) Goaltending is fine. Yes, Elliott will have his bad nights as will Allen, but the duo seems to be fine. The concern is will Hitch pull the riding one horse crap in the playoffs he did last season when it was clear Miller was not up to the task of winning Western Conference hockey.
6) Defense - Pietro does need to pull his head out of his arse. Other than the flukes last game, Butler looks to be a keeper. Lindbohm needs to be playing over Cole. Hopefully, the Blues can move Cole, although they won't get the 1st rounder back they spent on him.
7) Berglund needs a new home, but this goes back to who replaces him. He is playing better lately, and I don't think the Blues have anyone as talented to replace him that is ready yet.

I think that's about it.
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