Still pretenders

[Krigloch the Furious]

so what's up with Ian Cole?
Is this guy just not living up to what the Blues wanted? Was he supposed to fill the toughness gap that Polak left?

[Oaklandblue]

In a league where an 8th Seed ramped up and won the Cup, I think calling anyone a Pretender is flat out stupid. There isn't many people who called the LA Kings to win their first Cup when they did. Before that, they had some talent, some pieces and some issues, but they wern't this unbeatable team. In fact, they almost didn't make the playoffs.

Yet, they won.

No one has any idea who will do what, when, until AFTER it happens. Look at the Canes and how they won the Cup. Who expected that? Yeah, it's easy to talk about it now, after it all occurs, but at the time no one saw it coming. Trying to judge a team when they are in a losing streak is just silly.

If the team had some serious failure at the Core, then yeah, I could understand being concerned about blowing out in the playoffs or not even making them. Edmonton comes to mind off the top of my head. But the Blues have as much chance as any other team in the league of going all the way. What seems to be lacking, is the team's resolve. They want it, but they don't want it bad enough. They're not hungry. The team is like a close-knit group of friends and in that may be the real problem. They're a team. They have a job to do. The job is more than any friendship and the job has the reward of putting your name on a 100+ year old Icon that will make you legendary. Oh, and you're paid millions to do it. To me, and it's been my opinion of this for several years, but in my eyes, Hitch is a friend, not a coach. He has a system, but if he did the things that other coaches did, I feel we would see a stronger team. It's like in school, it's the teachers you hate the most that cause you to learn the most. Hitch doesn't strike me as one of those.

[ecbm]

When I look at the team...The problems I see I believe are aberrations, not norms.

Pietro is -12, but he is much better than a -12 player.
Backes is -6 and on pace for 37 points, his lowest total since 07-08.
Stastny is -1 and on pace for 41 points (well, .5 P/G, he won't play 82 games). That would be his worst pace ever.
Oshie is a +-0 and on pace for a just less than Stastny, also his worst career pace.

Every player has a career worst year at some point. And, sometimes it's randomly in the middle of a career, not at the beginning or end. But, I think it's far more likely that these guys return to something resembling their typical production than all have career lows right in their primes. And, despite all of that, we're still right at the top of the league. I think that's more amazing than anything. We have 4 key players (maybe more, I'm not going through the entire roster) players having at least close to the worst year of their career AND a hurt starting goaltender. And, we're still near the top of the standings.

I guess the flip of that is that Tarasenko is far outperforming his career averages, but I think it's far more likely that the other 4 are flukes than he is a fluke. And, I don't think the fluky years will continue for 82 games + playoffs.

Thanks for the response. This is a conversation that needs to happen in the FO. Regression from those four guys-plus Steen-goes a long way to explaining this team's problems. Like you, I use stats to frame that problem but really the issue is none of those guys are playing good hockey fundamentally except Stastny recently and Steen, who is simply valued too highly based on one great season. What to make of them?

Pietrangelo is having a rough streak; I think personal life is distracting him, he's down on himself and he's still getting 25 mins every night so it's hard to take stock and re-focus or just figure out the problems. His minutes should be reduced significantly but I wouldn't dream of trading him.

Stastny, as I said, I think is coming around after having to adjust to a new team/system, an injury to a body part that very much affects a player like him and then being relegated to playing with 3rd liners. Given the goals totals of Lindstrom and Berglund, you can't really expect many points from their center. (Aside: I'd move Backes to the wing on a line with Stastny and Steen, put Ott between Berglund and Jaskin, play Porter on the 4th line every night and put Lindstrom in the press box.)

That brings us to Backes, Oshie and Steen. I don't think those guys are going to just bounce back this season-especially if that means equaling the irregularly successful seasons Backes & Steen had in '13-14. I wouldn't move any right now unless I got blown away by an offer for Steen but I think expectation that they're all going to get back to last season's form and save this club is likely a bit much. I also think the pressure built up on Elliott to save this team over the last couple weeks is also a bit much. If the Blues keep getting outplayed in their own zone and taking 4-6 penalties every night while sporting a bottom-third PK even Hasek ca '98 can't save them.

I do think Hitch & Army are under pressure now, for the first time in their tenure. KH himself said the mistakes have been the same over the last several games. So, is it that he doesn't know how to fix them, that he doesn't have the pieces to fix them or that the players won't listen to him when he tells them how to fix them? If it's the first, he's rightly done and if it's any combination of the latter two then Armstrong needs to get to work. I'm really worried about how this squad is playing right now. They not only don't look competitive, at many times they look like they don't care.

[flyingnote38]

In a league where an 8th Seed ramped up and won the Cup, I think calling anyone a Pretender is flat out stupid...........If the team had some serious failure at the Core, then yeah, I could understand being concerned about blowing out in the playoffs or not even making them..... But the Blues have as much chance as any other team in the league of going all the way.

You then go on to make a pretty good case for what's wrong with the Blues' core. But forgot to mention they're capped out, have depleted their prospect ranks, have already death this year's first round pick, and are coming off 2 consecutive years of first round exits when predicted, and no doubt expected by ownership, to make deep playoff runs. This team has used up all its mulligans and then some.

What seems to be lacking, is the team's resolve. They want it, but they don't want it bad enough. They're not hungry. The team is like a close-knit group of friends and in that may be the real problem. They're a team. They have a job to do. The job is more than any friendship and the job has the reward of putting your name on a 100+ year old Icon that will make you legendary. Oh, and you're paid millions to do it. To me, and it's been my opinion of this for several years, but in my eyes, Hitch is a friend, not a coach. He has a system, but if he did the things that other coaches did, I feel we would see a stronger team. It's like in school, it's the teachers you hate the most that cause you to learn the most. Hitch doesn't strike me as one of those.

It sure looks like Hitch has lost the room. But firing Hitch and promoting Muller will just make the situation worse. Blues' complacent vets need something along the lines of the Allen Craig trade to get their attention, not throwing Paajarvii under the bus.

[drwoland]

I'm a little at just how much panic there is after a short skid.

I'm as sick as anyone of making excuses, but I think we're forgetting this team already got a sizeable overhaul in the offseason.

Everyone's forgotten that before the shitty road trip, this same team beat the Kings and made Jonathan Quick look like he was Hannu Toivonen.

I really do think that if they can stop getting fancy at their own blue line and just get the puck out, they'll win 2 of the last 4 games. It just looks like they don't know what to do when they get within 3-4 feet of the line on their way out the zone; wonder if the recent injuries have shaken the chemistry.

[flyingnote38]

I do think Hitch & Army are under pressure now, for the first time in their tenure. KH himself said the mistakes have been the same over the last several games. So, is it that he doesn't know how to fix them, that he doesn't have the pieces to fix them or that the players won't listen to him when he tells them how to fix them? If it's the first, he's rightly done and if it's any combination of the latter two then Armstrong needs to get to work. I'm really worried about how this squad is playing right now. They not only don't look competitive, at many times they look like they don't care.

basically a calmer restatement of my original post. Tonight's game could very well be a critical juncture for this team. Another dud loss to Colorado tonight, with a back-to-back tomorrow against Nashville, and we could end the year on a 6 game losing streak and in 4 th place in our division. It will be very happy if the best defenseman on the ice tonight isn't named Erik Johnson.

[WaukeeBlues]

The national media loves the Blues. Over the past 5 years or so every major sports media outlet from Sports Illustrated, ESPN, to TSN and The Hockey News have picked the Blues to win the Cup. Of course in that time the Blues never even won a 2nd round game but still!

You just never run out of material do you?

[Oaklandblue]

In a league where an 8th Seed ramped up and won the Cup, I think calling anyone a Pretender is flat out stupid...........If the team had some serious failure at the Core, then yeah, I could understand being concerned about blowing out in the playoffs or not even making them..... But the Blues have as much chance as any other team in the league of going all the way.

You then go on to make a pretty good case for what's wrong with the Blues' core. But forgot to mention they're capped out, have depleted their prospect ranks, have already death this year's first round pick, and are coming off 2 consecutive years of first round exits when predicted, and no doubt expected by ownership, to make deep playoff runs. This team has used up all its mulligans and then some.

What seems to be lacking, is the team's resolve. They want it, but they don't want it bad enough. They're not hungry. The team is like a close-knit group of friends and in that may be the real problem. They're a team. They have a job to do. The job is more than any friendship and the job has the reward of putting your name on a 100+ year old Icon that will make you legendary. Oh, and you're paid millions to do it. To me, and it's been my opinion of this for several years, but in my eyes, Hitch is a friend, not a coach. He has a system, but if he did the things that other coaches did, I feel we would see a stronger team. It's like in school, it's the teachers you hate the most that cause you to learn the most. Hitch doesn't strike me as one of those.

It sure looks like Hitch has lost the room. But firing Hitch and promoting Muller will just make the situation worse. Blues' complacent vets need something along the lines of the Allen Craig trade to get their attention, not throwing Paajarvii under the bus.

I'm not talking about firing Ken Hitchcock, let me be upfront about that.

I want the Ken Hitchcock that made Brett Hull play D. I want the headcase Ken Hitchcock, not this old fool. His system is bulletproof and that is the only reason he hasn't been fired. The system works and is deadly effective. This Ken Hitchcock....I don't know what to say about him. At all. He changes lines at the drop of a hat, he refuses to keep lines that work, he refuses to try anything outside of the norm. It's annoying at an epic level.

Ken Hitchcock is kind of a highlight of a problem that we have had for decades now:

We bitch about not having the right players. We have had teams, plural, of players stacked. We had a team that won the President's Trophy and was a juggernaut, so lacking skill isn't an excuse. These players, many of which, would go on to another team TO WIN A CUP or came from a team where they had won one. Not being good enough is NOT in that equation.

We've had top tier coaches that have won Cups and would win them before and after their stint with the Blues. They would walk in with battle plans and put us on the map.

We have had netminders like Glenn Hall who gave the team a supernatural chance to win. We have a "spiritual descendent" of sorts in Brian Elliott, if he will stay healthy and sync back in.

And each time we dump or fire someone because they don't work out, they go somewhere else, if they're quality, and win. So to make this short:

Skill isn't an issue.
Coaching isn't.
The desire is there. Just not with the Blues.

The problem is simple: It's the culture of the franchise that is the problem. Stop being a players team. Start being a team that truly represents the city of St. Louis and not one that babies it's players. Play like your pride is on the line instead of just a damn paycheck. They're wearing the Note on their chest, it MEANS something and if it doesn't mean enough to them, the fault isn't with the symbol but with it's caretakers. If they don't uphold what value that symbol has, then it's just a shirt they're wearing while making a living on the ice. Nothing more. Nothing less.

And if this isn't the problem, then what is it?

[Slim]

We won. Let's all take a breath now.

[STLADOGG]

We won. Let's all take a breath now.

The gun has been laid down.....for now. lol

[F Keenan]

We won! Now we're contendars!!!!1!!!

[ViPeRx007]

I apologize for calling everyone jackasses earlier, it really was meant to be sort of tongue-in-cheek. I just think some people are far too bipolar is all.

At this point it's all about consistency and doing it against the "big dogs". Nothing else really affects my outlook. They can beat the mediocre teams every day of the week, but if they lose that one game to LA/Chicago/etc it's basically a wash in my book. I still think they're figuring themselves out as a team. When these guys are on, they're damn good. We've all seen it. However, we've also seen a team that shows up some games that are wearing Blues jerseys but they play like somebody else. It's simultaneously encouraging (that we know they can be damn good) and discouraging (because sometimes they aren't). Is it just normal ups and downs? Are we over-analyzing because we're Blues fans and history has conditioned us to be this way? I'm sure that is part of it, but I really don't know. I just know I can't spend too much time in that pessimistic mode because it isn't any fun. History be what it may, but it's too long of a season to spend it all worrying about a future we don't know and can't predict. I just want to enjoy the wins, be upset (within reason) when we lose, and hope beyond hope that we figure it all out by April.

[theohall]

Are we over-analyzing because we're Blues fans and history has conditioned us to be this way?

Yes. Until the Blues actually get to the Conference Finals, at least, again, we are always going to be over-analyzing. It's maddening when lots of experts believe the Blues have the talent to be a Cup contender, yet they get eliminated in the 1st or 2nd round every year. Of course, it's usually against a Cup or Conference Finalist, but still. It's maddening. Especially when we also worry about the potential disaster trade that ruins the chemistry and what should have been becomes horrible, because of that trade.

On to some simpler analysis...

With the injuries, Jaskin looks like he is earning a spot on the team which should force one of the 4th liners (Lapierre) to the bench when Schwartz and Porter are both healthy again. While Jaskin does not look as good as Schwartz, he is playing with that kind of intensity this season.

[ecbm]

There may have been a bit of overanalysis lately but if you tell me you liked what you saw in the four games before last night we'll just have to agree to disagree. I mean players who suddenly don't know how to get out of their own end, horrible indiscipline, no heart and a coach with no answers aren't minor problems even in the short term. Hitch was right though, you have to take a long view and eliminate a few outlying performances when evaluating a team. Hopefully that's all the Colorado massacre was but the timing of that game in the middle of a mini-slump was reasonably worrying to a lot of people. And the Blues still have one major problem related to certain players' regression that has to be addressed-this squad isn't built to be dependent on scoring 3+ goals every night to win. That won't work in the playoffs, not just against CHI and LA but against anyone.

With the injuries, Jaskin looks like he is earning a spot on the team...

So what you're saying is that Berglund is even more expendable now?

[theohall]

No. Lapierre is expendable. Rather have Berglund than the waste of space which is Lapierre.

[glen a richter]

Jaskin was supposed to be good and I think his back and forth shuttle grew tiresome so he decided it was time to nut up and play the way the team expected him to. He's good to stay. Lapierre, I could have lived without him in the first place. What's one positive thing he's done with this team, aside from that stellar save in the playoffs which ultimately proved meaningless in the long term anyway? I don't even remember, was that him or was that Ott?

[flyingnote38]

Jaskin was supposed to be good and I think his back and forth shuttle grew tiresome so he decided it was time to nut up and play the way the team expected him to. He's good to stay. Lapierre, I could have lived without him in the first place. What's one positive thing he's done with this team, aside from that stellar save in the playoffs which ultimately proved meaningless in the long term anyway? I don't even remember, was that him or was that Ott?

That was Lappy. Ott's "moment" was the OT assist on Steen's goal.

[ecbm]

No. Lapierre is expendable. Rather have Berglund than the waste of space which is Lapierre.

Nah, they both are. Remember: Berglund makes almost 4X what Lapierre does. This is a fact.

[tjk002]

In a league where an 8th Seed ramped up and won the Cup, I think calling anyone a Pretender is flat out stupid...........If the team had some serious failure at the Core, then yeah, I could understand being concerned about blowing out in the playoffs or not even making them..... But the Blues have as much chance as any other team in the league of going all the way.

You then go on to make a pretty good case for what's wrong with the Blues' core. But forgot to mention they're capped out, have depleted their prospect ranks, have already death this year's first round pick, and are coming off 2 consecutive years of first round exits when predicted, and no doubt expected by ownership, to make deep playoff runs. This team has used up all its mulligans and then some.

What seems to be lacking, is the team's resolve. They want it, but they don't want it bad enough. They're not hungry. The team is like a close-knit group of friends and in that may be the real problem. They're a team. They have a job to do. The job is more than any friendship and the job has the reward of putting your name on a 100+ year old Icon that will make you legendary. Oh, and you're paid millions to do it. To me, and it's been my opinion of this for several years, but in my eyes, Hitch is a friend, not a coach. He has a system, but if he did the things that other coaches did, I feel we would see a stronger team. It's like in school, it's the teachers you hate the most that cause you to learn the most. Hitch doesn't strike me as one of those.

It sure looks like Hitch has lost the room. But firing Hitch and promoting Muller will just make the situation worse. Blues' complacent vets need something along the lines of the Allen Craig trade to get their attention, not throwing Paajarvii under the bus.

Thro Paajarvi under the bus? Dude threw himself under it, and then somehow drove it over himself as well. Guy was complete garbage. Has the size, skill and speed to be dominant but plays like Berglund. Both of those guys need to be traded. That frees up almost $5 million of cap space while losing very little.

[flyingnote38]

Thro Paajarvi under the bus? Dude threw himself under it, and then somehow drove it over himself as well. Guy was complete garbage.

Paarjarvi is not a part of the solution, but it's hard to consider him a big part of the current problem since he's basically been a healthy scratch. Demoting him doesn't send a message or make us any different on the ice.