Still pretenders

[flyingnote38]

Former Hawks GM Mike Smith felt that it took until "American Thanksgiving" to figure out what your team is. Even waiting until "American Christmas," it seems pretty clear that this team is not good enough to compete for the Cup. This is not a reaction to a single game, but a pretty mediocre Aves team did just expose all the Blues flaws for you last night. And since that game came on the heels of giving away 3 standing points in the previous two games on the trip, it is a bit worrisome.

The telling stat from last night (updated for today) was that if the playoffs started today, the Blues' record against teams in the playoffs would be 10-8-2. Against teams staying home, 11-2-1. This is your quintessential Hitchcock coached Blues team. Enough talent and (usually) consistent game-in game-out effort to rack up points in the regular season. But not talented enough to beat the legit contenders. If the Blues faced the Hawks, Sharks, Ducks, or Kings in a 7 game series, who would honestly expect the Blues to win? I'm not sure they could beat the Preds, Stars, or Aves for that matter. The Blues look slow compared to their opponents most nights. I'm amazed at how much time and space the other team seems to have in our end.

This year's squad is clearly inferior to the Blues teams of recent vintage. Piet has to be the front runner for comeback player of the year for the 2015-6 season. The defense in general has been pretty mediocre. The lack of goaltending depth has hurt. Tarasenko is the only elite offensive talent we have. Lehtera has been an unexpected boost; I hate to think where we'd be without him (probably double shifting Ott). But Stastny has been a bust so far and Oshie, Steen, Backes, Berglund are all underperforming. Ott, Lapierre and Reaves are a waste of icetime.

This team needs a major overhaul or a first round exit seems like a lock.

[JesusNEVERexisted]

Every team has a chance once they get in. But I agree the Blues look like the same old Blues for the most part. Haven't Hitchcock coached teams only won 1 Cup? And that was on a team of stars with Hull, Modano, Belfour, etc.

[F Keenan]

Every team has a chance once they get in. But I agree the Blues look like the same old Blues for the most part. Haven't Hitchcock coached teams only won 1 Cup? And that was on a team of stars with Hull, Modano, Belfour, etc.

Why do you ask questions about things that you can google? Yes, Hitch has only won the Cup once.

[JesusNEVERexisted]

Every team has a chance once they get in. But I agree the Blues look like the same old Blues for the most part. Haven't Hitchcock coached teams only won 1 Cup? And that was on a team of stars with Hull, Modano, Belfour, etc.

Why do you ask questions about things that you can google? Yes, Hitch has only won the Cup once.

Because this is a discussion board. What's the point of posting anything then?

[Oaklandblue]

We lose a couple games and we're suddenly pretenders? Y'all are so funny... So funny

[WaukeeBlues]

Former Hawks GM Mike Smith felt that it took until "American Thanksgiving" to figure out what your team is. Even waiting until "American Christmas," it seems pretty clear that this team is not good enough to compete for the Cup. This is not a reaction to a single game, but a pretty mediocre Aves team did just expose all the Blues flaws for you last night. And since that game came on the heels of giving away 3 standing points in the previous two games on the trip, it is a bit worrisome.

The telling stat from last night (updated for today) was that if the playoffs started today, the Blues' record against teams in the playoffs would be 10-8-2. Against teams staying home, 11-2-1. This is your quintessential Hitchcock coached Blues team. Enough talent and (usually) consistent game-in game-out effort to rack up points in the regular season. But not talented enough to beat the legit contenders. If the Blues faced the Hawks, Sharks, Ducks, or Kings in a 7 game series, who would honestly expect the Blues to win? I'm not sure they could beat the Preds, Stars, or Aves for that matter. The Blues look slow compared to their opponents most nights. I'm amazed at how much time and space the other team seems to have in our end.

This year's squad is clearly inferior to the Blues teams of recent vintage. Piet has to be the front runner for comeback player of the year for the 2015-6 season. The defense in general has been pretty mediocre. The lack of goaltending depth has hurt. Tarasenko is the only elite offensive talent we have. Lehtera has been an unexpected boost; I hate to think where we'd be without him (probably double shifting Ott). But Stastny has been a bust so far and Oshie, Steen, Backes, Berglund are all underperforming. Ott, Lapierre and Reaves are a waste of icetime.

This team needs a major overhaul or a first round exit seems like a lock.

That is precisely what your post is.

[cardsfan04]

Former Hawks GM Mike Smith felt that it took until "American Thanksgiving" to figure out what your team is. Even waiting until "American Christmas," it seems pretty clear that this team is not good enough to compete for the Cup. This is not a reaction to a single game, but a pretty mediocre Aves team did just expose all the Blues flaws for you last night. And since that game came on the heels of giving away 3 standing points in the previous two games on the trip, it is a bit worrisome.

The telling stat from last night (updated for today) was that if the playoffs started today, the Blues' record against teams in the playoffs would be 10-8-2. Against teams staying home, 11-2-1. This is your quintessential Hitchcock coached Blues team. Enough talent and (usually) consistent game-in game-out effort to rack up points in the regular season. But not talented enough to beat the legit contenders. If the Blues faced the Hawks, Sharks, Ducks, or Kings in a 7 game series, who would honestly expect the Blues to win? I'm not sure they could beat the Preds, Stars, or Aves for that matter. The Blues look slow compared to their opponents most nights. I'm amazed at how much time and space the other team seems to have in our end.

This year's squad is clearly inferior to the Blues teams of recent vintage. Piet has to be the front runner for comeback player of the year for the 2015-6 season. The defense in general has been pretty mediocre. The lack of goaltending depth has hurt. Tarasenko is the only elite offensive talent we have. Lehtera has been an unexpected boost; I hate to think where we'd be without him (probably double shifting Ott). But Stastny has been a bust so far and Oshie, Steen, Backes, Berglund are all underperforming. Ott, Lapierre and Reaves are a waste of icetime.

This team needs a major overhaul or a first round exit seems like a lock.

That is precisely what your post is.

Yep. Well, maybe a reaction to 3 games, but same thing. The broadcasters could hardly shut up about how much of a fluke last night was. Nationally, the Blues have respect as one of the top teams in the NHL. There is a reason for that.

I've said it before. All the negatives that people are pointing to (people underperforming, etc.) are what have me so excited about this team. While the team underachieves, they still have one of the best records in the league. When they live up to expectations, I think the team will be scary good.

[JesusNEVERexisted]

The national media loves the Blues. Over the past 5 years or so every major sports media outlet from Sports Illustrated, ESPN, to TSN and The Hockey News have picked the Blues to win the Cup. Of course in that time the Blues never even won a 2nd round game but still!

[dmiles2186]

This team needs a major overhaul or a first round exit seems like a lock.

A major overhaul?!? For a team that's 21-10-3?

Jesus H....

I mean, a move or two, sure. So we're 10-8-2 against 'good' teams? We've been great against playoff bound teams in recent seasons and that hasn't helped us at all. We are 35 games into the season. This team still has 50 games to get things rolling in the right direction.

This is still one of the best teams in hockey. There are teams on the outside looking in that would love to have this problem. We're a deep team. We could use some fine tuning, no doubt, but your breakdown of the Blues completely neglects that key players have been hurt or have played hurt against some of these good teams.

[Slim]

This team needs a major overhaul or a first round exit seems like a lock.

You know, if every team who hits a rough patch 34 games into a 82 game schedule would conduct a "major overhaul," most teams (including the Hawks, Aves, Ducks, Kings, Isles, Bruins, Habs, ect.) Would have nobody but the rink announcer and concession attendants left. That is part of a long season.

[cprice12]

Good God.
I understand the frustration over the past few games, but these knee jerk reaction posts to a three game skid are silly.
Where was this post when we had just won 5 straight just a few games ago and in first place in the division?

Our #1 goalie is out...and has been out for some time now. Elliott is clearly the best option we have in net, and has been amongst the best in the NHL for a few years now. That makes us a bit more vulnerable...hell, it would make any team more vulnerable. So we are up and down in net until he gets back.

We had also JUST won 5 straight before the recent short 3 game hiccup where we blew a couple games and got embarrassed in Colorado. PLUS, we were leading the NHL in goals scored in December up until a couple days ago.

I'm not saying this team is perfect when healthy, but when healthy, they are capable of beating anyone in a 7 game series.
I'd love to see the Blues make a move to try to get even better before the playoffs, because you know some other teams will make some moves...but we'll see what happens.

Until then, we're not even halfway through the season and we have a very good record right now... and we haven't even really played our best hockey yet.

I'd be concerned if they were playing inconsistent hockey and had some injuries when the playoffs started...but that is a long way away yet.

[flyingnote38]

Good God. I understand the frustration over the past few games, but these knee jerk reaction posts to a three game skid are silly.
Where was this post when we had just won 5 straight just a few games ago and in first place in the division?

http://www.stlouisgametime.com/2014/12/ ... what-is-it
here for instance

This is not a reaction to a single game, ................
This team needs a major overhaul or a first round exit seems like a lock.

That is precisely what your post is.

Sure, sure......just make the case that we are better this year than the past 2 seasons in any phase of the game. Make the case that we don't look slow playing virtually anybody (Rangers, Preds, Aves, Jets all specifically jump to mind). Convince me we are not a Tarasenko concussion away from being on the playoff bubble.

Yeah this is just a reaction to one game; you know which game this is a reaction to? The last game the Blues won in California. When was that?

You know, if every team who hits a rough patch 34 games into a 82 game schedule would conduct a "major overhaul," most teams (including the Hawks, Aves, Ducks, Kings, Isles, Bruins, Habs, ect.) Would have nobody but the rink announcer and concession attendants left. That is part of a long season.

Interesting collection of teams. The Hawks, Bruins, and Kings would sit tight because they know their cores are cup caliber. The Isles are just hoping to get back into the playoffs, not really where the Blues are at. The Habs? Who knows. Now the Blues and Ducks. Regular season dynamos, playoff duds. Broken record time: this team will be judged on how far it goes in the playoffs. Period. Both have serious questions about their core. Both chose to add around their core this past off-season. If they hit a stretch where they continue to consistently make a case that nothing has changed, then major changes need to happen or the playoffs will be the same.

but when healthy, they are capable of beating anyone in a 7 game series.

And yet this core has only won one playoff series. One. As in singular. Not much proof they are capable of "beating anyone." Based on the past decade, the opposite assumption seems to be the better one. Admittedly I'm basing that just on the one decade

[dmiles2186]

And yet this core has only won one playoff series. One. As in singular. Not much proof they are capable of "beating anyone." Based on the past decade, the opposite assumption seems to be the better one. Admittedly I'm basing that just on the one decade

Failing to mention that the 3 playoff series this team has lost were to the team that dominated everyone on their way to the Cup, that same team that was defending their Stanley Cup, and the team that beat that team on their way to the Stanley Cup and was defending their Stanley Cup.

It's not like we're dropping series to the Wild or the Predators, for God's sake.

[F Keenan]

Every team has a chance once they get in. But I agree the Blues look like the same old Blues for the most part. Haven't Hitchcock coached teams only won 1 Cup? And that was on a team of stars with Hull, Modano, Belfour, etc.

Why do you ask questions about things that you can google? Yes, Hitch has only won the Cup once.

Because this is a discussion board. What's the point of posting anything then?

It's the way you phrase the question you half wit.

[cardsfan04]

Good God. I understand the frustration over the past few games, but these knee jerk reaction posts to a three game skid are silly.
Where was this post when we had just won 5 straight just a few games ago and in first place in the division?

http://www.stlouisgametime.com/2014/12/ ... what-is-it
here for instance

This is not a reaction to a single game, ................
This team needs a major overhaul or a first round exit seems like a lock.

That is precisely what your post is.

Sure, sure......just make the case that we are better this year than the past 2 seasons in any phase of the game. Make the case that we don't look slow playing virtually anybody (Rangers, Preds, Aves, Jets all specifically jump to mind). Convince me we are not a Tarasenko concussion away from being on the playoff bubble.

Yeah this is just a reaction to one game; you know which game this is a reaction to? The last game the Blues won in California. When was that?

You know, if every team who hits a rough patch 34 games into a 82 game schedule would conduct a "major overhaul," most teams (including the Hawks, Aves, Ducks, Kings, Isles, Bruins, Habs, ect.) Would have nobody but the rink announcer and concession attendants left. That is part of a long season.

Interesting collection of teams. The Hawks, Bruins, and Kings would sit tight because they know their cores are cup caliber. The Isles are just hoping to get back into the playoffs, not really where the Blues are at. The Habs? Who knows. Now the Blues and Ducks. Regular season dynamos, playoff duds. Broken record time: this team will be judged on how far it goes in the playoffs. Period. Both have serious questions about their core. Both chose to add around their core this past off-season. If they hit a stretch where they continue to consistently make a case that nothing has changed, then major changes need to happen or the playoffs will be the same.

but when healthy, they are capable of beating anyone in a 7 game series.

And yet this core has only won one playoff series. One. As in singular. Not much proof they are capable of "beating anyone." Based on the past decade, the opposite assumption seems to be the better one. Admittedly I'm basing that just on the one decade

I'd argue that we're comparable defensively/in net and better offensively. I know that numbers don't really support my case (2.85 goals per game this year down from 2.91 last year and 2.47 GA/G this year up from like 2.29 last year or thereabouts).

I could go through everybody specifically, but the gist of my argument will be the same. We're not that far behind last year despite a major injury to our starting goaltender and a bunch of people with proven track records having slow starts to the season.

Defense/Goaltending: Pietro has suddenly been pretty bad, but I don't think that will continue, and our starting goalie has a major injury. I don't think either of those will be issues in April.

Scoring: We've score 97 goals in 34 games. 99 goals would have us ahead of last year's pace. We're basically 2 hit posts away from a better offense than last year and that's with proven guys like Backes/Oshie/Stastny/Steen all having inconsistent starts to the year. I guess it's possible that they lack some sort of chemistry this year that is causing a step back in their production. But, I think it's more likely that all 4 have had injuries, and are just off to slow starts. I don't believe that they all just suddenly forgot how to play hockey, and there have already been signs of them turning the corner even with a bad road trip.

Also, if you're arguing that the team is "still pretenders," I don't think past playoff records are relevant. That doesn't prove anything about this year's team. They aren't the same as the past because of the past.

[ecbm]

Not sure how anyone can look at this team and not see problems. I don't see "major overhaul" kind of problems...

1.) There seems to be some slipping happening. Someone on here has been posting the Blues' projected point totals. What's that down to now? Over the last ten games, among WC teams in playoff spots the Blues have a worse record than all but LA and VAN (what are the narratives re: those teams right now?) and are now 6 points off the pace (though with two in hand).

2.) The current point total is very dependent on a record of 11-3-3 at this point in 1-goal games. The good news is the Blues were very good in this regard last year too, going 23-6-6 over the season. So maybe that's sustainable but I hate to rely on it. Which brings me to...

3.) The offense actually hasn't improved. The Blues have scored one fewer goal than last season. That's not really surprising considering the modest input from Backes and Steen, on pace for about 40 goals instead of 60 like last year. Remember-#91 already had 21 last season. He can only improve so much and we also have Berglund (ha!) on pace for 5 fewer goals. Lehtera looks to double up what Sobotka provided but the 4th line not only produces virtually nothing but they're worse than last year: Morrow/Reaves/LaPierre had 24G, Ott/Reaves/Lapierre project to 13. Stastny is a wild card; if he doesn't have a hot scoring streak where he gets, say, 8-10 over a few weeks it's going to be a bust for year 1 of his deal (doesn't break my heart but there it is). Adding insult to injury, defense is about 3 goals off the pace from last season and projects 6-7 light at the end of the term. The offense looks nearly exactly as potent as last season but more dependent on a few individuals (#s 91, 12 and 22) due to reduced input from #s 42, 20 and 27 and the departure of the modest-but-noticeable contributions of ye olde #17 and Morrow. Don't even get me started on Oshie who looks to have been caught up to by wear, injuries and a stressful personal life. I don't like how this bodes for playoff series and, honestly, it feels like we're already seeing teams devoting their line matchups to stopping Tank and daring the rest of the Blues to beat them. If I'm facing the Blues in a series I feel like I know how to shut them down offensively. If 91 gets injured...well, I'd rather not think of that.

I don't see a need for a major overhaul but I definitely am not able to assuage my worries with vague assertions that the team is talented and all teams go through tough times. True as that may be, I hope the FO and coaches see this period as a chance to figure out some problems before crunch time-because there are problems. Hitch needs to figure out whom he can still reach with his coaching, get their asses back on track and tell Army to move the problems. Because this team has either abruptly plateaued or they're not listening. That's what disturbed me about the COL game and I don't mind saying I'm reacting to that. If that's what they give after what I'm sure were a rough few days in practice with their coaches pointing out some home truths, I'm worried. That was no kind of response.

[cardsfan04]

Not sure how anyone can look at this team and not see problems. I don't see "major overhaul" kind of problems...

1.) There seems to be some slipping happening. Someone on here has been posting the Blues' projected point totals. What's that down to now? Over the last ten games, among WC teams in playoff spots the Blues have a worse record than all but LA and VAN (what are the narratives re: those teams right now?) and are now 6 points off the pace (though with two in hand).

2.) The current point total is very dependent on a record of 11-3-3 at this point in 1-goal games. The good news is the Blues were very good in this regard last year too, going 23-6-6 over the season. So maybe that's sustainable but I hate to rely on it. Which brings me to...

3.) The offense actually hasn't improved. The Blues have scored one fewer goal than last season. That's not really surprising considering the modest input from Backes and Steen, on pace for about 40 goals instead of 60 like last year. Remember-#91 already had 21 last season. He can only improve so much and we also have Berglund (ha!) on pace for 5 fewer goals. Lehtera looks to double up what Sobotka provided but the 4th line not only produces virtually nothing but they're worse than last year: Morrow/Reaves/LaPierre had 24G, Ott/Reaves/Lapierre project to 13. Stastny is a wild card; if he doesn't have a hot scoring streak where he gets, say, 8-10 over a few weeks it's going to be a bust for year 1 of his deal (doesn't break my heart but there it is). Adding insult to injury, defense is about 3 goals off the pace from last season and projects 6-7 light at the end of the term. The offense looks nearly exactly as potent as last season but more dependent on a few individuals (#s 91, 12 and 22) due to reduced input from #s 42, 20 and 27 and the departure of the modest-but-noticeable contributions of ye olde #17 and Morrow. Don't even get me started on Oshie who looks to have been caught up to by wear, injuries and a stressful personal life. I don't like how this bodes for playoff series and, honestly, it feels like we're already seeing teams devoting their line matchups to stopping Tank and daring the rest of the Blues to beat them. If I'm facing the Blues in a series I feel like I know how to shut them down offensively. If 91 gets injured...well, I'd rather not think of that.

I don't see a need for a major overhaul but I definitely am not able to assuage my worries with vague assertions that the team is talented and all teams go through tough times. True as that may be, I hope the FO and coaches see this period as a chance to figure out some problems before crunch time-because there are problems. Hitch needs to figure out whom he can still reach with his coaching, get their asses back on track and tell Army to move the problems. Because this team has either abruptly plateaued or they're not listening. That's what disturbed me about the COL game and I don't mind saying I'm reacting to that. If that's what they give after what I'm sure were a rough few days in practice with their coaches pointing out some home truths, I'm worried. That was no kind of response.

When I look at the team, it's not that I don't see problems. They are certainly there. It's that I don't see problems that I think will be here longterm. The problems I see I believe are aberrations, not norms.

Pietro is -12, but he is much better than a -12 player.
Backes is -6 and on pace for 37 points, his lowest total since 07-08.
Stastny is -1 and on pace for 41 points (well, .5 P/G, he won't play 82 games). That would be his worst pace ever.
Oshie is a +-0 and on pace for a just less than Stastny, also his worst career pace.

Every player has a career worst year at some point. And, sometimes it's randomly in the middle of a career, not at the beginning or end. But, I think it's far more likely that these guys return to something resembling their typical production than all have career lows right in their primes. And, despite all of that, we're still right at the top of the league. I think that's more amazing than anything. We have 4 key players (maybe more, I'm not going through the entire roster) players having at least close to the worst year of their career AND a hurt starting goaltender. And, we're still near the top of the standings.

I guess the flip of that is that Tarasenko is far outperforming his career averages, but I think it's far more likely that the other 4 are flukes than he is a fluke. And, I don't think the fluky years will continue for 82 games + playoffs.

[ViPeRx007]

You jackasses. Remember when the Kings were pretty mediocre last season and then just blew up into full-on rampage mode at the end?

You don't know what's going to happen, so you can spend the next few months complaining and whining or you can let it unfold. Maybe we do keep getting crappier and changes get made, or maybe we don't. I'm not happy with the current situation (being the last 3 games....3) either, but to suggest an "overhaul" right now is stupid. It's not worth getting all in a tizzy about it AT LEAST until the deadline, unless we just fall on our faces over the next several weeks.

[glen a richter]

As long as the statistical corrections come in April, May and June, I'm fine with it. This team is a lot different without Elliott and Schwartz (and, evidently, Polak). I was a big supporter of the Allen for #1 camp, but seeing his struggles I'm definitely cool with Elliott being the #1 now and heading into the playoffs. I'd also be cool with him being shelved until early March. Get back in time to shake off the rust and be in top form for the playoffs. Allen seems to struggle at times, but as a team, slipping out of the playoff picture seems fairly unlikely unless something goes horribly wrong.

[flyingnote38]

I'd argue that we're comparable defensively/in net and better offensively. I know that numbers don't really support my case

Don't really have anything to add.

You jackasses. Remember when the Kings were pretty mediocre last season and then just blew up into full-on rampage mode at the end?

Well lets at least try to keep it civil. I remember the Kings making a deal at the deadline for the best available offensive talent at the two deadlines when they won the Cup. For the Blues to do that would require a major overhaul. expanded upon below.

but to suggest an "overhaul" right now is stupid. It's not worth getting all in a tizzy about it AT LEAST until the deadline, unless we just fall on our faces over the next several weeks.

Couldn't find the piece that said something similar to what I'd posted until late yesterday because I thought it was on Game Time. The only thing I could find there was this fairly tepid piece from Hildymac:
http://www.stlouisgametime.com/2014/12/ ... ng-scratch

The key part is "There's long been chatter that Hitch has a "shelf life." All coaches do, unless you're Mike Babcock or Joel Quenneville (and your owners aren't idiots). Players tune out coaches for many reasons - personality clash, lack of respect, or a lack of understanding. If the Blues' players are in fact tuning out Hitch, perhaps it's beneficial to view Cole as a case study as to why"

People are starting to question if Hitch has lost 'the room.' That sounds like a problem and certainly would be consistent with the lack of effort in Colorado following all the talk of how they were going to "salvage their trip with a win."

The stronger worded piece I later re-found on Hockey Buzz from Randall Richey:
http://www.hockeybuzz.com/blog/Randall- ... /201/65060

key point here is "If the Blues can't put things together(in the 3 games this coming week against division rivals), I think we could start 2015 with some roster transactions. We've seen this movie before. The Blues players look like they are starting to quit on their coach. This has happened with Mike Kitchen, Andy Murray, and Davis Payne. It's looking more and more like it's starting to happen to Ken Hitchcock as well.

Hitchcock, to me, is on the hot seat as is. There is a reason when the Blues renewed his contract, it was only for one season. But the Blues core, is looking to end his tenure a little early.

If Hitchcock is let go at all this season or after the season, it will be the fourth coach the Blues core has seen. When do to the players start taking the blame? I wouldn't be surprised to see a deal come to fruition before the trade deadline. "

As for "Major Overhaul"......firing the coach might get their attention but in my mind wouldn't be sufficient or necessarily address the problem. The Blues are capped out, thinned out to a handful of prospects and already have dealt their #1 pick this season. To make any kind of move at all (beyond say releasing Lindstrom), the Blues are going to have to ship out salary (gonna have to happen at some point anyway to free up cap space to sign Tarasenko). This requires moving players off the roster. This is one reason why certain names (Oshie, Berglund) keep popping up in trade rumors. Would trading two top 10 forwards and perhaps a depth dman (say Cole) to net a young winger from Edmonton and a Dman be a 'major overhaul'? I'd say it would.