Blues poised for a regression?

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gaijin
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Blues poised for a regression?

Post by gaijin »

Bah, what does ESPN know from hockey?

http://insider.espn.go.com/nhl/story/_/ ... 014-15-nhl
With much of the active roster producing at or above their expected levels in 2013-14, the St. Louis Blues, who narrowly missed out on a Central Division title, are at risk of seeing many of their key contributors take steps back this season. While a late-season swoon from trade deadline pickup Ryan Miller kept the team from a first-round matchup with the Minnesota Wild, the Blues instead wasted the blistering performances of the likes of Alexander Steen, T.J. Oshie, Alex Pietrangelo and others as they fell in six games to the Chicago Blackhawks in the first round.

Accordingly, it is no surprise that VUKOTA sees many of the top Blues skaters falling this season to levels more commensurate with their historical records. To maintain their lofty divisional contender status, St. Louis will need the addition of stud center Paul Stastny to make up for the general downturn among his new teammates and for the new goalie tandem of Brian Elliott and Jake Allen to outperform the past season's tandems of Elliott and Jaroslav Halak, and later, Elliott and Miller.
I don't think this is very likely. Our team just isn't built that way. Hitch plays defense-first, and I'd say our defensive corps is pretty damn solid. I know there's been a lot of discussion on goaltending, but I'm comfortable with the guys we have. Our offense is upgraded, so even if some players do regress this year, we should be about like last year.
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Re: Blues poised for a regression?

Post by ecbm »

ESPN hockey coverage = ugh. They basically have a couple guys who know a little about east coast teams and that's it. Schoenfeld actually picked the Coyotes (the Coyotes!) to win the cup in preseason and they still have him around.
With much of the active roster producing at or above their expected levels in 2013-14
That's just not true. I don't think it's unreasonable to expect more production from Schwartz (assuming he plays for us...) and Vova and we have new additions in Stastny, Lehtera & Gunnarson who should all produce more than the players they replace. Jaskin will be given a chance and could be productive. All of these players are at or before their prime.

I do worry about regression from Steen. His first half/second half splits from last season are stark, he's only ever scored more than 20 twice before that and he's now on the wrong side of 30. But other than that, the playoffs are really the only thing that worries me with this team. Maybe I'm overconfident...we'll see in a few weeks...

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Re: Blues poised for a regression?

Post by ViPeRx007 »

When ESPN decides to show more than 10 seconds of hockey highlights per night I might consider their opinion. Asshats.

Honestly, I wish more people would dog on us. I'd much rather they be under the radar. Obviously it shouldn't matter what anyone says; just play the game, but I know the media has some affect sometimes.
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Re: Blues poised for a regression?

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gaijin wrote:Bah, what does ESPN know from hockey?

http://insider.espn.go.com/nhl/story/_/ ... 014-15-nhl
With much of the active roster producing at or above their expected levels in 2013-14, the St. Louis Blues, who narrowly missed out on a Central Division title, are at risk of seeing many of their key contributors take steps back this season. While a late-season swoon from trade deadline pickup Ryan Miller kept the team from a first-round matchup with the Minnesota Wild, the Blues instead wasted the blistering performances of the likes of Alexander Steen, T.J. Oshie, Alex Pietrangelo and others as they fell in six games to the Chicago Blackhawks in the first round.

Accordingly, it is no surprise that VUKOTA sees many of the top Blues skaters falling this season to levels more commensurate with their historical records. To maintain their lofty divisional contender status, St. Louis will need the addition of stud center Paul Stastny to make up for the general downturn among his new teammates and for the new goalie tandem of Brian Elliott and Jake Allen to outperform the past season's tandems of Elliott and Jaroslav Halak, and later, Elliott and Miller.
I don't think this is very likely. Our team just isn't built that way. Hitch plays defense-first, and I'd say our defensive corps is pretty damn solid. I know there's been a lot of discussion on goaltending, but I'm comfortable with the guys we have. Our offense is upgraded, so even if some players do regress this year, we should be about like last year.
Yeah, this is bullshit. I'll give them Steen's remarkable run and a possibility that he peaked out last year. But Oshie, Pietro and "the others"? They had great teamwork and chemistry, yes, but no one had a super season even if prior seasons' totals were exceeded. Plus, why would the trend stop? Aren't the guys like Oshie supposed to further mature into their roles and only better for the next 3-4 years?

Another "fill-the-space-while-stirring-the-pot-with-nonsense" article. I spit on that.
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Re: Blues poised for a regression?

Post by JesusNEVERexisted »

gaijin wrote:
I don't think this is very likely. Our team just isn't built that way. Hitch plays defense-first, and I'd say our defensive corps is pretty damn solid. I know there's been a lot of discussion on goaltending, but I'm comfortable with the guys we have. Our offense is upgraded, so even if some players do regress this year, we should be about like last year.
And last year the Hawks schooled us in 6. You can't expect Steen to keep such a torrid pace again. You can list several teams like the Hawks, Avs, Stars, Kings, Ducks, Sharks and maybe others that can be big trouble as playoff opponents.

Stastny's Avs couldn't get past the Wild and you all know the Blues have added far better players and still didn't get near a Cup. Sure the Blues could win the Cup but the odds are against it with what they have.

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Re: Blues poised for a regression?

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This is why we play the games - cause the experts are no more 'expert' in their predictions than you or I could pick. I thought what hurt you guys last year was having too many games in hand. At the end of the season it means you have to play more to catch up with everyone else and that means you start the playoffs being tired. It led to you guys giving up the division to Colorado and the playoff outcome may have been different.

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Re: Blues poised for a regression?

Post by JesusNEVERexisted »

Considering the Blues lost badly to the Avs down the stretch and then the Avs lost to the Wild in the playoffs it certainly wasn't a sure thing that the Blues would've beaten the Wild in round 1.

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Re: Blues poised for a regression?

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Kerfuffle wrote:This is why we play the games - cause the experts are no more 'expert' in their predictions than you or I could pick. I thought what hurt you guys last year was having too many games in hand. At the end of the season it means you have to play more to catch up with everyone else and that means you start the playoffs being tired. It led to you guys giving up the division to Colorado and the playoff outcome may have been different.
We ALWAYS have games in hand, our schedule is always backloaded because of virtually-guaranteed stickball playoffs leeching our 'fanbase'
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Re: Blues poised for a regression?

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Kerfuffle wrote:This is why we play the games - cause the experts are no more 'expert' in their predictions than you or I could pick. I thought what hurt you guys last year was having too many games in hand. At the end of the season it means you have to play more to catch up with everyone else and that means you start the playoffs being tired. It led to you guys giving up the division to Colorado and the playoff outcome may have been different.
We gave up the division to Colorado because of injuries to Oshie and Tank. The team was noticeably worse once Tank went down and then Oshie goes down later and that was two key guys out of the lineup that produced offense, and that was our issue down the stretch...offense. Now, the injuries may have been partly due to the busy schedule at the end of the season, but whatever.

The "experts" have picked the Blues for the cup a few times and that never happened.
So....yeah.
It will be a cold day in hell when I trust an "expert's" opinion over mine when it comes to analyzing this team's play on the ice.
Myself, along with a number of folks in here, know this team far better than most national "experts" who only see the team play a handful of times during the year.
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Re: Blues poised for a regression?

Post by JesusNEVERexisted »

sseagle wrote:
Kerfuffle wrote:This is why we play the games - cause the expein thts are no more 'expert' in their predictions than. ou or I could pick. I thought what hurt you guys last year was having too many games in hand. At the end of the season it means you have to play more to catch up with everyone else and that means you start the playoffs being tired. It led to you guys giving up the division to Colorado and the playoff outcome may have been different.
We ALWAYS have games in hand, our schedule is always backloaded because of virtually-guaranteed stickball playoffs leeching our 'fanbase'
Yeah, it's disgusting! That's not why I hate baseball. Baseball is such a snoozefest it makes soccer look exciting! :lol:
But that gives Blues fans another reason to hate the barfbirds! They take so much attention away from the Blues in October Scottrade would be half empty if they played a regular October schedule.

Just look at the different media outlets who have predicted the Blues win the Cup in the last 5 years:

1.The Hockey News
2.ESPN
3.Sports Illustrated
4.TSN

I think one year Vegas gave them the best odds. This year no one has picked them so maybe that's a good sign!

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Re: Blues poised for a regression?

Post by dmiles2186 »

I could see a regression, sure. I could also see them sticking with the status quo. I think it all comes down to goaltending. If Brian Elliott (or Jake Allen) can play like a true #1, then I see this team more or less finishing where they have the last few years. But if both of them struggle and no one grabs the top gig, then it will be much like the strike shortened season where consistency will be hard to come by.

Ultimately, this team is too deep, too experienced, and too well-coached to regress too far, in my opinion.
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Re: Blues poised for a regression?

Post by Oaklandblue »

Regression?

We lost Boat, that trash they call Miller, Jaro and the Shark Killer, err, Polak, but got Stastny, Lehtera, Gunner, made Brian Elliott the CLEAR CUT #1 guy, Jake is now the backup man starting his soon-to-be franchise career as Blues Badass #1....Regression? The hell these people watching? We just improved by miles and miles and miles.

The only real need we have is a #1 Forward, and if Tank or Schwartz have their breakout year this year we got that and we're going in deep come playoff time.

Steen has always been the quiet guy in the room. Under the right conditions, he catches fire. He did it a few years ago, before last year hit, no one remembers that? I think we're going to see much of the same from him this year.

Stillman is one step away from selling his soul to Satan for a St. Louis Blues Stanley Cup win, so regression? Who comes up with these fairy tales?

The only person that can realistically throw a wrench into the works, is Hitch, and I don't see that happening because the kind of team he needs to have assembled to do some serious damage he's got now, so unleash him and let's get a Cup.

Regression....they have to be delusional Hawk or Wing fans. Have to be.
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Re: Blues poised for a regression?

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cprice12 wrote: We gave up the division to Colorado because of injuries to Oshie and Tank.
Now there's a lot of inaccuracies and misperceptions in what JNE wrote but this really isn't true. The Blues' slide dated back to January (31-7-5 to Jan. 9; 21-17-2 from Jan. 10; ) and had as much to do with Steen & Backes' goals drying up, Morrow & Roy turning back into pumpkins and some ill-timed poor goaltending as anything. The last six games of absolute free fall-that's more explainable in terms of injuries because at that point Oshie & Vova had been joined by Backes, re-joined by Leopold and Steen also wasn't 100%. Add in the genius move of replacing Backes with the totally ineffective Steve Ott (playing hurt is the word on the street...) et voila!

I point this out because I think it would be a very unproductive route to take for this club, internally, to explain away the lack of performance with "we had some guys hurt". The problems are deeper than that and if there isn't some change in approach/philosophy/use of personnel/coaching that this team will pretty much be what it was last year with a bit more scoring. That may be enough to get us over the hump but then again, maybe not.

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Re: Blues poised for a regression?

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JesusNEVERexisted wrote:That's not why I hate baseball.
Right, you hate baseball because you're from Chicago.

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Re: Blues poised for a regression?

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Of course we're gonna suck. :okman:
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Re: Blues poised for a regression?

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JesusNEVERexisted wrote:But that gives Blues fans another reason to hate the barfbirds! They take so much attention away from the Blues in October Scottrade would be half empty if they played a regular October schedule.
Don't lump all Blues fans in with hating baseball and the Cardinals. I'm a baseball fan and die-hard Cards fan.
I'd even venture to say most Blues fans are also Cardinal fans.
If you don't understand baseball, that's fine...but don't put all Blues fans in your boat.
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Re: Blues poised for a regression?

Post by Misc. Blues »

Oh the memories back when ESPN used to sorta know hockey. Those were the days...now they know less about hockey and more about ping pong or lacrosse. Who cares what 10 seconds of NHL knowledge has to say. The Blues are on the up not the down. ESPN what a joke they are... :facepalm:
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Re: Blues poised for a regression?

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I think I'm just going to hunker down with my fantasy football team and not even bother with this NHL season. After all, predictions are ALWAYS right.
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Re: Blues poised for a regression?

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ViPeRx007 wrote:I think I'm just going to hunker down with my fantasy football team and not even bother with this NHL season. After all, predictions are ALWAYS right.
I reiterate: ESPN still pays someone to write about hockey who picked the Coyotes to win it all last season with a straight face. I still just can't fathom it...

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Re: Blues poised for a regression?

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The only way the Blues regress this year is if their goaltending isn't up to snuff.
The offense was the issue last year and on paper that has been addressed.
Our defense should be solid once again, assuming Gunnarson is steady.
And our system is stellar, which is the main cog in this machine.

Elliott would have to disappoint and regress and Allen would have to end up not being ready for significant work in the NHL...and I don't see that happening. Elliott has been stellar since he has been here and there is no reason to think he won't have a solid year.
Allen is a question mark as he hasn't played many games in the NHL so we'll see on him. I always roll my eyes when folks say Allen will be the #1 by the end of the season. Based on what? Do they think Hitch will stick a rookie in net and expect a long cup run? I guess it depends on how he plays this year, but I seriously doubt he is the guy in the playoffs unless Elliott has a pretty poor season.

I see Elliott getting a 60-40 split with Allen early in the year, with Elliott getting more of a 70-30 split as the season wears on. And then Elliott will be the guy in the playoffs.
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