NHL Draft Order based on Mathematical Elimination

[Winning Unlimited]

http://www.bepress.com/jqas/vol6/iss1/6/

[WaukeeBlues]

I fail to see how that system is any different than how it currently works.

According to this guy and if I've followed it correctly, your team gets a top pick based, not on final point standings, but on your team's record based on when you were eliminated from playoff contention.

So in other words, if you're going to miss the playoffs, your team better make sure you do it sooner rather than later otherwise you might miss out on a better pick. That encourages winning?

I see what he's trying to say, but the underlying premise isn't all that different from how it currently works.

[glen a richter]

That's fairly straight forward. You get eliminated, you get slotted according to the number of points you accumulate in all games post mathematical elimination, highest to lowest.

Ergo, if you get eliminated early, you're best served to keep playing hard anyway because if you get more points than another team that gets eliminated, you score a higher draft pick.

You benefit from playing hard after it no longer matters to your playoff hopes. What's so difficult about that, Waukee?

[cprice12]

That's all fine and dandy if you feel teams are tanking...but I don't think it happens enough to be considered a problem.

If I understand this right, under this format, their is a good chance the worst team in the league won't get the first pick.
If you are the worst team, you will get eliminated first...but being the worst teams that means not many points will be accumulated after elimination.
A team that gets eliminated days or weeks later, could quite possibly accumulate more points than a team eliminated first because they are simply a better team.
Also, what if one team has a tough schedule the last few weeks of the season and another team has an easy schedule?
We'd essentially be determining draft order based on strength of schedule after you are eliminated.

Or... what about conferences? If one conference is poor, that means your team will be in the playoff hunt longer, resulting in a worse draft pick if you are eliminated late in the season, but those teams may actually have worse point totals than teams eliminated earlier from the other conference.

All kinds of things are wrong with this philosophy.

[Winning Unlimited]

"Tanking" does exist. This affects the identification of the team that really is the worst.

If Edmonton is a worst case scenario, they only had to produce a winning percentage of 30% to get the first overall pick using my recommendation. Although, this is just ad-hoc analysis anyway.

The problem with schedules is worse for playoff teams. Playoff positions can be determined based on the tanking factor. It is best to err on the side of caution and make sure you get the playoff teams right, and then you can worry about the draft order teams' strength of schedule.

Poor conferences already exist. Over the last 17 years, the west has had the team lowest in the standings just twice (06 STL, 10 EDM). And if you really wanted to, you could use chi-square tests for independence to show that there is disparity already among the conferences. Or, we can list the NHL's draft order by conference vs my draft order by conference and lets see who has more parity?

Mathematical Elimination
1. West
2. West
3. East
4. East
5. West
6. East
7. West
8. West
9. West
10. East
11. East
12. East
13. West
14. East

NHL
1. West
2. East
3. East
4. West
5. East
6. East
7. East
8. East
9. West
10. East
11. West
12. West
13. West
14. West

Look at that. 2 of the top 8 picks are in the west. This result is statistically significant using the recommended test for the NHL, but not significant for my order.

[Winning Unlimited]

Just make the trip to Truman tomorrow and come say hi.

[kodos]

It's just too complicated. I don't think "tanking" is as big of a problem as people think.

The draft is too much of a crap shoot anyway. It all balances out.

[WaukeeBlues]

That's fairly straight forward. You get eliminated, you get slotted according to the number of points you accumulate in all games post mathematical elimination, highest to lowest.

Ergo, if you get eliminated early, you're best served to keep playing hard anyway because if you get more points than another team that gets eliminated, you score a higher draft pick.

You benefit from playing hard after it no longer matters to your playoff hopes. What's so difficult about that, Waukee?

Not difficult, just not any different.

In either format (what exists or this hypothetical), the absolute worst case scenario is to get to the final games of the season and not make the playoffs.

What I was getting at is like something like that Blues' situation. We were mathematically in the hunt until the very end. "Mathematically in" and "likely to make" aren't the same thing.

What this new system would encourage is to lose quickly to get out of the playoff race if it doesn't look very good that you're going to get in anyway. THAT way, you have more games to accumulate points. It basically encourages teams on the fringe to lose and get out of the race to improve your draft position. So, like I said, it encourages losing.

That obviously assumes that professional athletes and coaches would honestly do that, which I don't believe.

[goon attack]

They could base the draft order on post-elimination win PERCENTAGE, not points.

[kodos]

What happens when a team is eliminated with one game left and then they win it. Then you end up with a 100% win percentage.

This idea, while somewhat interesting, is really just to complicated. The inability to really gauge how good a prospect is really going to be is more of an equalizer than anything.

[gaijin]

Just make the trip to Truman tomorrow and come say hi.

I wouldn't go near that place if you paid me...

Oh damn- I forgot I spent 5 years there in the 90s...

Send me a Ronza.

[fargoblues]

Just make the trip to Truman tomorrow and come say hi.

I wouldn't go near that place if you paid me...

Oh damn- I forgot I spent 5 years there in the 90s...

Send me a Ronza.

Bwahaahahaaaaaa. Yes, the RONZA. I also spent 5 years there in the 90s. Wow. I'm old.

[philco_3]

F that system. It should strictly go on point standing not when somebody gets eliminated.

[gaijin]

Just make the trip to Truman tomorrow and come say hi.

I wouldn't go near that place if you paid me...

Oh damn- I forgot I spent 5 years there in the 90s...

Send me a Ronza.

Bwahaahahaaaaaa. Yes, the RONZA. I also spent 5 years there in the 90s. Wow. I'm old.

Maybe we need to start the Truman Alum group, now that we've hijacked Optimegus's thread.

[goon attack]

What happens when a team is eliminated with one game left and then they win it. Then you end up with a 100% win percentage.

Luck of the draw.... that team would damn well want to win that last game. It would make for added drama.

[fargoblues]

Just make the trip to Truman tomorrow and come say hi.

I wouldn't go near that place if you paid me...

Oh damn- I forgot I spent 5 years there in the 90s...

Send me a Ronza.

Bwahaahahaaaaaa. Yes, the RONZA. I also spent 5 years there in the 90s. Wow. I'm old.

Maybe we need to start the Truman Alum group, now that we've hijacked Optimegus's thread.

Well, here's how old I am: I never attended "Truman State University"...

[gaijin]

Just make the trip to Truman tomorrow and come say hi.

I wouldn't go near that place if you paid me...

Oh damn- I forgot I spent 5 years there in the 90s...

Send me a Ronza.

Bwahaahahaaaaaa. Yes, the RONZA. I also spent 5 years there in the 90s. Wow. I'm old.

Maybe we need to start the Truman Alum group, now that we've hijacked Optimegus's thread.

Well, here's how old I am: I never attended "Truman State University"...

I attended NMSU for one year, then Truman for another 4.

To make things crazier, just tonight I met an Army Lieutenant Colonel here in Afghanistan that graduated from NMSU.