Brian Elliott - Best Goalie in the NHL. Let's fight.

[theohall]

Well said, Glen.

One more note about system.... Blues possession metrics when looking at Corsi and Fenwick are the lowest they've ever been under Hitchcock. IMO, this is largely due to the forwards and defense being as aggressive on offense as they are in terms of puck movement. It's no longer just make the safe play and it shows up in the stats.

I really want to see what happens in the playoffs when Tank isn't playing at half-speed.

[cprice12]

My rationale for saying he is the "best in the nhl" (and yes, I am saying he is) is that this isn't just a hot streak he is on. He has been doing this for the last 5 years.

Sure, he has had a few games here and there where he has struggled in years past, but what goalie doesn't have those? They all do.

Bottom line is his body of work as a whole as a Blue...and when you look at it he has the best GAA and best Save% in the NHL over the past 5 years. That's so significant it can't be overlooked.

And it's not like he is doing this as a backup. He has split time for the most part, and is 5th all time in games played for the Blues, and he'll likely play over 40 games this year. So he is getting substantial playing time. He's not doing this by playing 15-20 games a season against easier matchups in the backup role.

Like others have mentioned, he hasn't played 60 games a year, so we don't know how he would hold up with more games played. But he COULD hold up just fine...or not. That's a big "what if" scenario. I'm just going by what we know. I don't think it's fair to automatically count that against him. Hell, he could have even better numbers if he plays more. We don't know.

To me, if you play in 40+ games a year and have a 1.95 GAA (which Elliott has right now), that is enough to qualify you to seriously be in the conversation for "best in the NHL" against those who play 50-60 games.

Those who want to say Bishop is the best...that's a great conversation. He has fantastic numbers, not far behind Elliott in GAA and Save% and 19 more games played. So I get that argument. But I'll choose Elliott. Price is another guy...he was fantastic last year and was this year as well until he got hurt.

If Elliott continues his solid play in the playoffs, I think that only solidifies his position as best in the NHL to me. That is really the only thing he has left to prove...but like we've all said many times, our issues in the playoffs has been goal scoring, not goaltending. Elliott's playoff GAA has gone down each of the past three playoff runs he's been involved in (you can't count last year, he played 1 game and faced 7 shots and allowed 1 goal). Elliott has been very good in the playoffs, and I expect nothing less again this year.

[Winning Unlimited]

We'll never know how good Elliott is until Brewer comes back.

Elliott has great positioning, lateral movement, rebound control, and vision/sense.

I want to make the case that Elliott is the best goalie for this team by his style of play, and may not be the best NHL goalie. If you put Elliott on another team, {Rinne, Quick, Niemi}, take those three goalies {Rinne, Quick, Niemi}, put them on the Blues, and they would all be worse. Our defense has adjusted well to Elliott's goaltending style.

We saw this with Miller and we see parts of it with Allen. Miller was a different style of goaltender, and I saw a team inability to gel together: blocking shots, positioning, defensive system all were built around the Elliott, Allen tandem.

Allen plays more aggressive than Elliott. Allen will challenge the shooters, come out of his net further, and will go down to take away the low shot. Our defense had to adjust when Allen first came to StL. His aggressiveness left our net vulnerable, and our defense would not cut inside to adjust.

Do you think the Blues play a more aggressive style of defense with Elliott over Allen, knowing he won't be challenging the shooters as often? I think Rinne, Quick, Niemi are aggressive like Allen, and will play out of their net more. If Elliott went to those teams, he would not be as good.

[Kerfuffle]

He hasn't played enough games. Only 37 played and 20 wins. Allen has 45/25 in comparison. you have to look at the full picture. I'll give u an example - let's say the blues call up a 3rd string goalie to play the last 2 games of the season when the blues playoff slot is already solidified and this goalie throws 2 shutouts. Someone could effectively point to that and say look --> he has 100% SVP and went undefeated. Best goalie in the league? Statistically yes - no one else has a 1.0 SVP. I'm purposely giving a ridiculous example to show how stats can be misleading. Elliott with less than half a season played is going to have inflated stats. But overall Allen has been a much better goalie this year for the Blues when you look at the full picture

[Winning Unlimited]

Batman and Superman both wear Blue Notes, apparently.

[cardsfan04]

He hasn't played enough games. Only 37 played and 20 wins. Allen has 45/25 in comparison. you have to look at the full picture. I'll give u an example - let's say the blues call up a 3rd string goalie to play the last 2 games of the season when the blues playoff slot is already solidified and this goalie throws 2 shutouts. Someone could effectively point to that and say look --> he has 100% SVP and went undefeated. Best goalie in the league? Statistically yes - no one else has a 1.0 SVP. I'm purposely giving a ridiculous example to show how stats can be misleading. Elliott with less than half a season played is going to have inflated stats. But overall Allen has been a much better goalie this year for the Blues when you look at the full picture

I'm with you on sample size being part of the discussion, but I think you're going to wrong way with it.

I agree that his numbers should regress to the mean with a larger sample size, but I don't think it will be a huge regression. His numbers this year are roughly in line with his entire time in St. Louis. I get the point you were making about the 2 shutout thing and that it was an intentionally extreme example. I just think the point it makes is only marginally applicable here because with an infinite sample size his numbers shouldn't drop off too terribly much.

The relevant point of sample size to me (in this particular context) is that goalies with 60+ starts are playing with less rest (more back-to-backs,etc.) and the impact of 60+ starts vs 40 isn't negligible. It's kind of like the difference between a SP and a closer in baseball. The closer may have better rate stats, but at 1/3 of the innings pitched as the best starter in the league.

[cprice12]

He hasn't played enough games. Only 37 played and 20 wins. Allen has 45/25 in comparison. you have to look at the full picture. I'll give u an example - let's say the blues call up a 3rd string goalie to play the last 2 games of the season when the blues playoff slot is already solidified and this goalie throws 2 shutouts. Someone could effectively point to that and say look --> he has 100% SVP and went undefeated. Best goalie in the league? Statistically yes - no one else has a 1.0 SVP. I'm purposely giving a ridiculous example to show how stats can be misleading. Elliott with less than half a season played is going to have inflated stats. But overall Allen has been a much better goalie this year for the Blues when you look at the full picture

You obviously haven't watched both Allen and Elliott play much this year.
While Allen has been very good in stretches, and has been very good overall, Elliott has been far superior. It's not even close.

And 40 games vs. 50 or 60 games is not even a comparison to 2 games vs. 40 games. You admittedly gave a "ridiculous comparison to show how stats can be misleading", but your ridiculous comparison is what makes the stats misleading in your example. So you can't do that.

Comparing Elliott's 40+ games (which he will likely end up playing) to someone else's 55 or 60 games is not a ridiculous comparison. Besides, games played has nothing to do with how good a goalie is. All that means is that the team has less faith in the backup.

Some previous Vezina trophy (best goalie in the NHL) winners...
Bobrovsky played in 38 games and won the Vezina.
Hasek played in 41 games and won the Vezina.
Roy played in 44 games and won the Vezina.
Rarrasso played in 41 games and won the Vezina.
Hell...in 80-81, Richard Sevigny only played in 27 games and won the Vezina.

Elliott's 40+ games (or whatever he ends up playing) should be easily more than enough games to be considered in a conversation for "best in the NHL".

Nobody is really talking about Elliott being a Vezina candidate, but that's not surprising as Elliott hasn't really gotten the credit he has deserved over the past 5 years. He hasn't even gotten the credit he deserves from his own coach. Which is one of the reasons he needs to go at the end of this season...barring a trip to the finals.

[Kerfuffle]

Elliott hurt his chances for the vezina by being demoted to backup duty - do you remember how we started the season and everyone was on the jake Allen train? Suddenly no one likes him and Elliott is "the man" once again. People are overlooking how good Allen has been - Elliott throwing a shutout against a capitals team that has already locked up the conference and doing mop up duty is not as impressive as the wins Allen had earlier in the season to get the Blues to this point.

[Toasted Oates]

Elliott hurt his chances for the vezina by being demoted to backup duty - do you remember how we started the season and everyone was on the jake Allen train? Suddenly no one likes him and Elliott is "the man" once again. People are overlooking how good Allen has been - Elliott throwing a shutout against a capitals team that has already locked up the conference and doing mop up duty is not as impressive as the wins Allen had earlier in the season to get the Blues to this point.

Allen started against the Caps.

Nobody is overlooking Allen. And as far as I know, no one dislikes him. As was already said, you haven't watched much of these guys lately if you're picking Jake. Elliott could drop off, sure, but he is the man right now. His rebound control and just general calmness could be stacked up against anyone in the League as of Easter Sunday.

To me, Brian Elliott won this job in mid February when he gave up 3 goals in 3 games to the Lightning, Stars, and Kings. His overtime win against LA was the best game I've seen out of either goaltender and Allen has had some nice wins, including yesterday.

[cprice12]

Elliott hurt his chances for the vezina by being demoted to backup duty - do you remember how we started the season and everyone was on the jake Allen train?

I don't recall "everyone being on the Jake Allen train". I was on board with riding the hot hand last year into the playoffs because Allen was playing better than anyone in the NHL and he played very well up until a bad goal against in game 5. The team just didn't play well in front of him after that.

And Elliott wasn't "demoted to backup" early in the year. Allen got the bulk of the starts at the start of the season because he was playing fantastic hockey. You make it sound like Elliott wasn't playing well.
Elliott was actually sick and missed a start or two, and Allen got the nod and he was on fire so they rolled with him and he played great for a while.
Then Allen got hurt and Elliott took over and continued to put up the fantastic numbers he has for years here.
Then he got hurt and Allen took over and was great, up until the last couple games before Elliott came back...and when Elliot came back, he proceeded to pitch 3 straight shutouts before being rested last night.

Suddenly no one likes him and Elliott is "the man" once again.

Who doesn't like Allen?
I think Allen has been very good this year and I am happy we have him. But Elliott has been better and I want him to be "the guy" in the playoffs. I've been saying this, for the most part, for years now.

People are overlooking how good Allen has been - Elliott throwing a shutout against a capitals team that has already locked up the conference and doing mop up duty is not as impressive as the wins Allen had earlier in the season to get the Blues to this point.

Well, Allen started and beat the Caps yesterday...not Elliott. So is the shutout still unimpressive?

Did you watch the game? It was a VERY good game. The Caps didn't hold back at all...they went after it. They were trying to clinch the President's trophy. It got pretty chippy.
No, they didn't start Holtby...but Holtby doesn't score goals either.
Don't discredit the shutout. It was a well deserved shutout on the road. It's not like the Caps sat half a dozen regulars in the final game of the season or something.

From watching Elliott play and simply looking at his numbers compared to the rest of the league...if he keeps up his play and finishes with a sub 2.00 GAA like he has now, if I had a vote, I'd vote for him for the Vezina this year. No question.

But again, I understand why someone would vote for Bishop. His numbers are right behind Elliott and he has played in almost 20 more games. I get that thinking. But Biship is really the only other guy RIGHT NOW that I would give the Vezina to over Elliott.

[Kerfuffle]

Then Allen got hurt and Elliott took over and continued to put up the fantastic numbers he has for years here.

Then why did Armstrong go out and get Ryan Miller 2 years ago instead of sticking with Elliot and his 'fantastic numbers'? We had this discussion I recall back in the Ryan Miller threads at the time and I questioned why Armstrong made that move when no goalie change was needed (Halak/Elliott were fine) and I recall you were supportive of getting Miller at the time. I think you're being unfair to Allen and throwing him under the bus here - he did the major lifting for the Blues this year. Yes Elliott has the hot hand and as a coach you ride that as far as it will take you. But if he struggles I expect a quick hook from Hitch and back to Allen we go.

[cprice12]

Then Allen got hurt and Elliott took over and continued to put up the fantastic numbers he has for years here.

Then why did Armstrong go out and get Ryan Miller 2 years ago instead of sticking with Elliot and his 'fantastic numbers'? We had this discussion I recall back in the Ryan Miller threads at the time and I questioned why Armstrong made that move when no goalie change was needed (Halak/Elliott were fine) and I recall you were supportive of getting Miller at the time. I think you're being unfair to Allen and throwing him under the bus here - he did the major lifting for the Blues this year. Yes Elliott has the hot hand and as a coach you ride that as far as it will take you. But if he struggles I expect a quick hook from Hitch and back to Allen we go.

Because Halak was going to be the #1 in the playoffs that year, I was on board with Miller replacing Halak. I wanted Elliott to be the #1 that year, but if Halak was going to be the #1, then I was fine with getting Miller. I would have preferred Elliott over either...and I think I said that at the time. But I'm not going to lie...I was excited to have Miller on the team because of his resume. But it didn't work out.

And I'm not throwing anyone under the bus. I like Allen a lot...he can be fantastic...but he can also lose his focus and allow some weird goals. But listen, Elliott has simply been better. And it's not just Elliott with the hot hand lately, he has been doing this for the last 5 years. He has the best GAA and Save% in the NHL over the past 5 years. If you want to call that a hot streak, then it's a five year hot streak.

I'm not saying Hitch won't go back to Allen if Elliott struggles a bit, but that doesn't make it right. Hitchcock and I do not see eye to eye on the way he has handled our goaltending. And that's not to say I am uncomfortable with Allen...quite the contrary, he can be fantastic...but he just simply isn't as good as Elliott...Elliott has been THAT good. Someone has to be better, and it is Elliott, so he should be the guy.

I'm not sure why you are saying Allen is superior to Elliott. The numbers don't back up that statement, and anyone who has watched the Blues this year will probably tell you that Elliott has been better.

[theohall]

The problem for Elliott and the Vezina will be wins.

Since 1981-82 only 3 goalies have won with less than 30 wins. Hasek and Bobrosky did it with 19 and 20, respectively, in lockout shortened seasons. Barrasso in 83-84 with 26 wins. In the other 28 years, no one has won with less than 30 wins. Elliott can't get 30.

If there were awards for 5 year stints, Elliott wins hand down. I hope they finally give him the reins in the playoffs.

[cprice12]

The problem for Elliott and the Vezina will be wins.

Since 1981-82 only 3 goalies have won with less than 30 wins. Hasek and Bobrosky did it with 19 and 20, respectively, in lockout shortened seasons. Barrasso in 83-84 with 26 wins. In the other 28 years, no one has won with less than 30 wins. Elliott can't get 30.

If there were awards for 5 year stints, Elliott wins hand down. I hope they finally give him the reins in the playoffs.

And I'm not saying he'll win the Vezina...he won't.
The Vezina is supposed to be for the "best goalie" but that isn't always the case...just like the gold glove winner at a position in baseball isn't always the best fielder at that position, actually, it rarely is.

Same thing with any trophy like that really. Hell, Erik Karlsson won the Norris trophy last year AND in '11-'12, and he doesn't even kill penalties he's so bad defensively. How can a defensively below average defenseman win the award for best defenseman? It's a joke really. Sometimes they get it right, but often times they do not. The fact that Chris Pronger only won the award one time is a complete joke. Yes, he was playing during Lidstrom's heyday, but Pronger was robbed in '97-'98 when Rob Blake won it. It's mostly about offense, not defense...which is sad.

But anyway, it doesn't matter to me personally one bit who wins the Vezina. Assuming Elliott finishes the season strong, he has been and is the best goalie in the NHL this year. Maybe it's just me...but I wouldn't choose any other goalie in the NHL to be our goalie in the playoffs. Not Lundqvist, not Bishop, not Quick...not anyone else. And so help me God if Hitchcock gives Allen some playoff starts (as he hinted at doing) because he just can't (Franking) bring himself to name Elliott as the #1, I'm going to lose my (Franking) mind.

[ecbm]

Kinda silly to let another team's fan bait one into trashing one of your players in comparison with another.

Elliott and Allen have both been great this year. Elliott has been better, but in a smaller sample. That will likely keep him from winning an award-along with the perception (which is less true this year than any other) that Hitchcock's system is designed to prevent chances and lightens the load on a goaltender. Frankly, I don't give 2 shits about the award. If one of these goalies can play well enough to the bring the Blues playoff success I'll be over the moon. Right now my call on that goalie would be Elliott. He's shown a consistency (when healthy) this season that has me thinking he's over a hump and ready to be a bona fide NHL #1. There's one more challenge for him to meet though. As with the Blues generally this year, it's all about the playoffs.

[cprice12]

Kinda silly to let another team's fan bait one into trashing one of your players in comparison with another.

Elliott and Allen have both been great this year. Elliott has been better, but in a smaller sample. That will likely keep him from winning an award-along with the perception (which is less true this year than any other) that Hitchcock's system is designed to prevent chances and lightens the load on a goaltender. Frankly, I don't give 2 shits about the award. If one of these goalies can play well enough to the bring the Blues playoff success I'll be over the moon. Right now my call on that goalie would be Elliott. He's shown a consistency (when healthy) this season that has me thinking he's over a hump and ready to be a bona fide NHL #1. There's one more challenge for him to meet though. As with the Blues generally this year, it's all about the playoffs.

How am I trashing anyone?
I like Allen...he can be fantastic. I said that just a few posts up. But Elliott has simply been better and I want him to be the guy in the playoffs.

[theohall]

Elliott - experienced, conservative style goalie, playing the best of his career, IMO.

Allen - not as much experience, better puck-handler, aggressive style goalie - which can a) kill you in the playoffs if the opposition moves the puck well and your D isn't there or b) make your offensive possession time and opportunities ridiculously one-sided by helping the D move the puck. Was playing damn good until injured and looks like he found that form again vs Washington.

Two different style goalies who each are playing incredibly good. For once, go with the experience in the playoffs. I was ticked when they kept playing Miller when it was clear he wasn't performing well at all 2 years ago.

[cardsfan04]

It has to be Elliott in the playoffs. I still think that longterm we want Allen to win the job from Elliott. I see more upside there. It looked like he was doing that this year, but Elliott was phenomenal while Allen was out. When Elliott got hurt I thought it might end that storyline, but he came back with 3 straight shutouts.

Don't get me wrong. I'm really high on Allen and feel totally comfortable having him start in the playoffs. He didn't do anything to lose the job. But, Elliott has just been so great that he has to have won the playoff job.

I did hear the seemingly annual rumor of using a tandem in the playoffs. I'm less opposed to it this year than others, but it's not going to happen. Elliott's the guy. Has to be.

[gaijin]

Elliott - experienced, conservative style goalie, playing the best of his career, IMO.

I think that's the key right there- playing the best of his career. You have to start him.

Plus, due to his play over the last few months (not just preventing us from dropping down a few places in the standings, but pushing us to the top of the Division and Western Conference), he's got the crowd firmly behind him, which is an invaluable boost for the whole team. When the crowd is chanting your name, it helps to take your game to a whole new level.

[glen a richter]

I think long term is Husso. The fantastic depth we have in goal is a great thing though because we do lack in depth at scoring wing and if any of Husso, Opilka, Binnington (probably not at this point), Copley, any of them pan out to be the clear cut #1, we can trade some of that wealth in goal to solidify the wing.

I don't see a whole lot of quality past Rattie, Descheneau and Blais. Hitch doesn't like Rattie (clearly) and he won't like Descheneau or Blais for the same reason--too small. So figure out the goal situation in the next couple of seasons, bring Husso stateside and see what he does here, and trade some depth goalies for wing prospects.